USA TODAY International Edition
Our view: Democrats, ditch the sky- is- falling pitch
In the past century, incumbent presidents have been on the ballot 16 times. Only four times have they been turned out of office: Herbert Hoover was defeated at the height of the Great Depression. Gerald Ford, Jimmy Carter and George H. W. Bush went down with unemployment at elevated rates in the 7% and 8% range.
For this reason, it’s a very good bet that President Donald Trump will make the economy a central piece of his reelection campaign. The unemployment rate is 3.5%, the lowest it has been since the 1960s, and the stock market has been setting new record highs.
The Democratic presidential nominee had better have a strong message for voters who might not like Trump as a person but who like the economy’s performance since he was elected.
To date, however, the candidates’ prime pitch has been that the economy is only helping the rich. In last week’s debate, for example, former Vice President Joe Biden said, “The American public is getting clobbered. The wealthy are the only ones doing well.”
Wealth concentration, stagnant wages and weak manufacturing are surely worth discussion. But they can’t be the only thing out of a candidate’s mouth without general- election voters questioning his or her credibility. In polls over the past year, roughly 70% of respondents say the economy is strong.
A better response would be to say that Trump inherited a strong economy. The nominee might also point out that Trump’s actions to juice the economy until the election will likely have serious consequences: Trillion dollar deficits will be a burden for generations. Jawboning the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates low could trigger inflation. And reckless deregulation will cause health and safety scandals.
When Trump tries to argue that electing a Democrat would result in tanking the economy, the nominee might also point out that since World War II, the economy has done better under Democrats than Republicans. In particular, Democratic presidents have been more fiscally responsible. They ran up big deficits only during wars and deep recessions and, in 1969 and 2001, bequeathed budget surpluses to their Republican successors.
Barring a significant slowing of the economy before November, these are better arguments than those Biden and others put forth at the last debate.
While it is true that no incumbent president has been thrown out of office with a strong economy, there is one example, Lyndon Johnson, of an incumbent quitting rather than facing what looked like a dicey reelection. He made his decision not to run with an unemployment rate very much like today’s as the electorate focused on Vietnam.
Something similar is true now. Many voters like the economy but are disturbed by Trump’s conduct.
Whoever faces Trump ought to exploit these misgivings while maintaining credibility on economic matters. For voters who are working and watching their 401( k) balances rise, the sky- isfalling pitch is likely to fall flat.