USA TODAY International Edition
Trump extends guidelines amid dire warning
Advisers predict up to 200,000 deaths in USA
WASHINGTON – Hours before President Donald Trump announced his decision to extend social distancing guidelines intended to slow the spread of coronavirus, one of his top health advisers predicted Sunday as many as 200,000 Americans could die from the disease.
Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, told CNN’s “State of the Union” he projected millions of Americans will contract COVID- 19 and between 100,000 and 200,000 people could die from the virus. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s worstcase scenario earlier estimated at least 200,000 could die from it this year.
Public health officials reiterated the grim estimates before Trump extended his initial 15- day guidance to slow the spread the virus until the end of April. Trump had said he wanted to lift recommendations that Americans work from home and avoid discretionary shopping by Easter, but he’d also said he would consider input from health experts.
“The peak in death rate is likely to hit in two weeks,” Trump said Sunday. “Nothing would be worse than declaring victory before the victory is won.”
The guidelines say to avoid gatherings involving groups of 10 or more, to stay away from public spaces, to avoid discretionary travel and to practice increased hygiene. They also asked people to stay home if they are sick and for older people to stay away from others.
Where are things now?
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention projected a worst- case scenario of 160 million to 210 million cases by December. Under that forecast, 21 million people would need hospitalization and 200,000 to 1.7 million could die by the end of the year. Health officials have cautioned that the models of infection rate vary widely.
Fauci, who described the estimates as a “moving target,” was among several members of the Trump administration coronavirus effort appearing on Sunday political shows. Whatever the numbers, the experts agreed that the virus continues to pose a major threat.
“No state, no metro area will be spared,” Deborah Birx, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, told NBC’s “Meet the Press.” “We are asking every single governor and every single mayor to prepare like New York is preparing now.”
It’s not yet clear how those warnings square with Trump’s desire to “reopen” the nation and restart the economy. Trump had said he hopes many Americans could go back to work by Easter, potentially beginning in some of the least hard- hit parts of the country. Trump instead announced that the social distancing guidelines would be extended through April 30.
Another outstanding question is how much of an impact lifting or adjusting the federal guidelines would have. The more stringent and enforceable restrictions have been imposed by state officials in New York, California and elsewhere. An easing of federal guidelines might influence governor, but it wouldn’t require a response.
How estimates are made
Estimates are based on extrapolation of data, in other words drawing conclusions about what has happened in other areas and applying those to the nation. The predictions depend on the continuation of factors, such as rates of transmission, said Ogbonnaya Omenka, an assistant professor at Butler University’s College of Pharmacy and Health Sciences.
Fauci’s numbers are “within reason,” Omenka said, because a recent survey result applied to the entire U. S. population would put the expected number of cases nationwide at about 8 million. Still, the real number of cases is likely to be much higher than current reports show, Omenka said.
What happens next is vital
Trump has repeatedly said he would listen to public health officials before deciding whether to extend or alter the federal guidelines. Fauci indicated that the president did just that over the weekend, backing down from an initial plan to impose a quarantine in New York and other hard- hit Northeast states.
The president told reporters on Saturday that he was considering a weekslong quarantine for New York and parts of New Jersey and Connecticut. Public health officials are concerned that nonsymptomatic residents of those states may be spreading the virus to other areas as they travel around the country.
But after the idea drew criticism from state officials, including New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, Trump instead announced a “strong” travel advisory.
“After discussions with the president, we made it clear, and he agreed, that it would be much better to do what’s called a strong advisory,” Fauci told CNN.
Omenka said that the state and federal government must be careful about causing a second wave of infection by reopening public spaces too soon.
“The peak has to start coming down before we can start to confidently revise strategies,” Omenka said.
That advice appeared to align with a report Sunday from the American Enterprise Institute.
The report suggested strict social guidelines remain in place until a state reports a “sustained reduction in cases” for at least two weeks “to guard against the risk that large outbreaks or epidemic spread could reignite once we lift our initial efforts.”