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COVID- 19 may remain – even if vaccine is found
Frustration with the extended quarantine is mounting on social media. Protesters say the COVID- 19 pandemic has slowed enough to justify reopening. One viral Facebook post making the case in Wisconsin says we need to get used to living in a world with COVID- 19.
It was posted April 26 by Dr. David Murdock, a research cardiologist with the Aspirus health system in Wausau who was placed on leave after attending an April 19 reopen rally for research.
“The consensus medical view is that this virus is here to stay. In other words, this virus cannot be defeated simply by staying inside for a couple of months,” wrote Murdock. “The world will likely see periodic outbreaks, and we need to accept that and be prepared to deal with COVID long term.”
Is COVID- 19 really here to stay? We asked experts.
Claim: COVID- 19 is ‘ here to stay’
Many experts have said a true return to normalcy likely isn't possible until a vaccine is widely available, which could be a year or more.
“We're going to probably all need to be used to social distancing for the next 12 to 18 months,” John Raymond, CEO of the Medical College of Wisconsin, said in an April 27 online briefing. “Until hopefully we have an effective vaccine, it's likely we're going to be living with COVID- 19.”
A vaccine doesn't necessarily mean the end of COVID- 19. “Absent a vaccine, I think it would quite likely become like seasonal flu or perhaps like some of the other coronaviruses that we are familiar with,” said Bill Hanage, an associate professor of epidemiology at Harvard University's School of Public Health. “It is entirely plausible that this could become part of our regular landscape of respiratory viraI infections.”
The vaccine he references would be a theoretical one that is 100% effective and gives lifelong immunity. But vaccines are “almost never perfect,” notes Barry Bloom, a professor of public health at Harvard.
Bloom also expressed concern over the volume of misinformation about COVID- 19 vaccinations on social media, which include conspiracy theories about pushing people to vaccinate and concerns about how the vaccines may be dangerous. That could affect willingness to take a vaccine once it's available.
“The vaccine is only a tool if it's used,” Bloom said.
What we don’t know
Hanage said key unknowns will determine the long- term future of COVID- 19. Can people get reinfected, and how severe those recurrences would be? How much immunity results from minor infections? Will summer alter infectiousness?
“If that immunity is not very long- lasting – and we have good reason from other coronaviruses including the original SARS, that it won't be – what type of infections will people have when their immunity starts to wane?” Hanage said. “The first thing to say is we don't know, but I think it's also plausible to suggest they might be milder.”
SARS – a disease caused by a coronavirus that killed 774 in 2003 – has been eradicated. But key differences make COVID- 19 a more formidable foe. SARS patients generally weren't contagious until they had severe symptoms. COVID- 19 is more easily transmitted and has a prevalent community spread.
“The virus remains, and we need to learn how to deal with it,” said Wilder- Smith, a professor of emerging infectious diseases at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. “Certainly lockdown is only a temporary solution whilst we gear up to provide the true solution. Yes, we need to prepare for this reality.”
Charles Branas, chair of the epidemiology department at Columbia University's Mailman School of Public Health, said eradicating the virus like we did with smallpox “will be challenging, to say the least.” Ali Khan, dean of the College of Public Health and professor of epidemiology at the University of Nebraska Medical Center, said COVID- 19 sticking around is “likely, but not inevitable.”
Our ruling: True
Based on what we know now, we rate this claim as TRUE. Experts say it's too early to know with certainty, since much remains unknown about immunity. And we have no clue how effective a future vaccine may be. But a best guess at this point is that COVID- 19 could indeed stick around long- term, waxing and waning similar to the seasonal flu. Experts say there's also reason to believe that lingering version could be less severe, though.