USA TODAY International Edition
MLB stars not always the top draft picks
Arizona State slugger Spencer Torkelson is expected to be the top choice in this week’s Major League Baseball draft, joining an elite fraternity of No. 1 picks that includes three Hall of Famers, six MVPs and 24 All- Stars.
Yet even under the best of circumstances, being taken first overall is not a golden ticket to MLB stardom.
Four No. 1 picks have retired without appearing on the major- league level, led by catcher Steve Chilcott, taken by the New York Mets in 1966. ( The No. 2 pick, Reggie Jackson, had a nice career.) Dozens of others, such as David Clyde ( 1973), Paul Wilson ( 1994) and Bryan Bullington ( 2002), fell well short of expectations.
It’s too soon to tell if last year’s top pick, Baltimore Orioles catcher Adley Rutschman, is more Chilcott than Joe Mauer, who carved out a case for the Hall of Fame from behind the plate after being taken with the first pick in 2001. Likewise with the first- rounders from 2016- 18, most of whom are still working through the minors.
However, looking at MLB drafts from 2000- 15 tells us what we should already know: The best finds in the first round of any given draft are very often at or near the top. That’s a good sign for Torkelson and a comforting thought for the Detroit Tigers, who own the No. 1 pick on Wednesday. Here’s the class of the first round since 2000.
2015: Alex Bregman, Houston Astros ( No. 2)
The two- time All- Star and 2019 Silver Slugger finds himself under a cloud of controversy and suspicion in the wake of the ongoing sign- stealing controversy. Even with that caveat, Bregman has been the most productive firstrounder in his draft class, with a pair of top- five MVP finishes and a total WAR ( 22.4) more than double his next- closest competitor.
2014: Matt Chapman, Oakland Athletics ( No. 25)
Already a two- time Gold Glove winner with a combined 60 home runs the past two seasons, Chapman has established himself as an annual All- Star contender and a key piece of Oakland’s latest rebirth.
2013: Kris Bryant, Chicago Cubs ( No. 2)
The NL Rookie of the Year in 2015 and the MVP a year later, leads the pack in an underwhelming first round that has produced one other star, Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge.
2012: Carlos Correa, Astros ( No. 1) While injuries have been a theme throughout his five- year career, Correa leads the 2012 class in career WAR ( 24.5), hits ( 573) and RBI ( 372). As with Bregman, however, how Correa’s career is viewed has been colored by the Astros’ scandal.
2011: Gerrit Cole, Pittsburgh Pirates ( No. 1)
A superb first round produced 13 future All- Stars, four above the rest: Cole, Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor and George Springer. With 94 career wins as he heads into his prime, Cole, who signed a $ 324 million contract with the Yankees in December, gets the nod for his historic runs of pure dominance. 2010: Chris Sale, White Sox ( No. 13) Picking Sale over Bryce Harper, Manny Machado or Christian Yelich isn’t controversial. Sale has seven top- six Cy Young finishes. He holds the MLB record for strikeout- to- walk ratio. He’s one of three pitchers to start three All- Star Games in a row. The track record is historic, though Sale will be sidelined until at least 2021 following Tommy John surgery.
2009: Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels ( No. 25)
He’san interesting case study in a year when high school prospects have been prevented by COVID- 19 from having a full senior season to treat as a draft showcase. Coming out of New Jersey, Trout fell to 25th overall in no small part due to teams’ wariness to spending high picks on prep prospects from outside of warm- weather states that allow for year- round baseball. The rest is history for Trout and the Angels.
2008: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants ( No. 5)
The six- time All- Star, Rookie of the Year and MVP is the gem of a first round loaded with airballs, from the first overall pick ( Tim Beckham to the Rays) through another eight selections that never reached the majors.
2007: David Price, Rays ( No. 1) Price ( 150 career wins) edges out Madison Bumgarner and Josh Donaldson, even if Bumgarner has a legendary World Series pedigree and Donaldson has a four- year run ( 2013- 16) that tops any 2007 first- rounder. Price has finished in the top six of Cy Young voting four times, winning in 2012.
2006: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers ( No. 7)
Or is it Max Scherzer, who blossomed later than Kershaw but is building a Hall of Fame career across the past seven seasons? Scherzer seems indestructible as Kershaw’s game has evolved and adapted, and Scherzer can now tout the World Series ring that Kershaw cannot. Still, with the two just about even in wins, Kershaw has the career edge in winning percentage (. 695), ERA ( 2.44) and WHIP ( 1.008), and a hefty lead in career ERA+ ( 157).
2005: Andrew McCutchen, Pirates ( No. 11)
There’s justification for picking Troy Tulowitzki, who in his prime ( 2007- 10) outplayed the rest of his fellow 2005 first- rounders. With Tulowitzki’s career over — and Ryan Braun’s track record sullied by PED use — the choice is McCutchen, who may be slowing down as he enters his 12th season but has an MVP ( 2013), another three top- five MVP finishes and a shot at 2,000 hits.
2004: Justin Verlander, Tigers ( No. 2)
Verlander has 225 career wins, 3,000 career strikeouts, a pair of Cy Youngs and a career WAR of 71.6, dwarfing fellow first- rounders such as Jered Weaver, Gio Gonzalez and Stephen Drew. Fresh off the best two- year run of his career, the 36- year- old ace has a shot at 300 wins.
2003: Nick Markakis, Orioles ( No. 7) and Adam Jones, Mariners ( No. 37)
It’s between two ex- teammates in Baltimore: Markakis, who began his career with the Orioles before heading to Atlanta, and Jones, drafted by Seattle before being traded to Baltimore as a prospect in 2008. Markakis has a slight lead in career WAR ( 34.2 to 32.5) and a more noticeable edge in runs, hits and batting average. But Jones was a fivetime All- Star who served as the face of the franchise as the Orioles went from laughingstock to contender before reverting to form.
2002: Zack Greinke, Royals ( No. 6) Like Verlander, the 35- year- old shows no signs of rust 16 years after making his MLB debut. One of just two active pitchers with more than 200 career wins, Greinke is 114- 45 with a 2.90 ERA during the past seven seasons.
2001: Joe Mauer, Minnesota Twins ( No. 1)
Mauer’s run behind the plate, which ended in 2013, includes some of the top hitting seasons by a catcher in MLB history, highlighted by three batting titles, six All- Star Games and the 2009 MVP. Combined with 2,123 hits and a lifetime .306 batting average, that might be enough to eventually get Mauer into the Hall of Fame.
2000: Chase Utley, Phillies ( No. 15) Utley’s Hall of Fame candidacy might be derailed by less- than- optimal career totals, but there was a 10- year period ( 2005- 14) when the Phillies’ second baseman was among the best players in baseball, perhaps only exceeded in total impact by Albert Pujols.