USA TODAY International Edition
Browns hold keys in making AFC field
CANTON, Ohio – Once in a blue moon, Browns fans get a regular- season finale with playoff implications.
They have that now, knowing a win over Pittsburgh plops a postseason on the plate.
They experienced it on Dec. 30, 2007, when the Browns won Game 16 early in the day but had Jim Sorgi hanging over their heads that night.
People in their mid- 20s or older may recall Dec. 29, 2002, when beating the Falcons in Game 16 happened in a year when 9- 7 was good enough to win a tiebreaker.
Before that? Time travel backward across the move to Baltimore to the days of Bill Belichick. Game 16 of the 1994 season fell on Christmas Eve. The Browns beat the Seahawks to get to 11- 5 and earn a New Year’s Day home game in the wild- card round.
That’s it. There have been three blue moons in the previous 30 seasons ( including three years lost in the transition to the expansion era) when Game 16 amounted to anything.
The infrequent flyer factor made Sunday’s loss to the Jets all the more numbing. Simply beating a 1- 13 team would have gotten the Browns in.
“This one is going to sting for a day or two,” quarterback Baker Mayfield said, “but we have the Steelers to win and get in. Yes, I am aware of what could have happened. I am going to have to roll with these punches. Backs against the wall, and we have to win to get in.”
Losing to the Jets was reminiscent of an infamous loss in 2007, when the Browns hit Game 15 assured of the playoffs if they won at Cincinnati.
The Bengals weren’t great, but they were much better than the 2020 Jets, finishing 7- 9 overall and 5- 3 at home. The Browns arrived with a 9- 5 record, dropped a 19- 14 decision, and fell into an ill- fated tiebreaker scenario for Game 16.
On Dec. 30, 2007, the Browns got busy in their 1 o’clock game, beating a 4- 11 49ers team to get to 10- 6, but they needed a Sunday night win from the 13- 2 Colts to win a wild- card tiebreaker. John Madden and Al Michaels had the Colts- Titans call for NBC. Jim Sorgi had
the ball at quarterback after Peyton Manning played for a while but then was rested.
Sorgi threw a touchdown pass to Craphonso Thorpe for a 10- 7 lead, but the Titans rallied to a 16- 10 win. The Browns didn’t get in. Sorgi turned 40 this month, perhaps without many birthday cards from Browns fans.
The only times the expansion- era Browns hit Game 16 with a chance to make the playoffs were in 2002 and 2007. In most years, they were out of the race much earlier. To cite two examples, the immediate follow- ups to their ’ 02 and ’ 07 runs, they were 4- 11 going into season finales in both 2003 and 2008.
This week is unlike any other in the expansion era in that it is the first time when a Game 16 win guarantees a playoff spot.
The year of COVID- 19 has been a wrecking ball, but it helps the Browns’ playoff hopes. In each of the previous 21 years, six AFC teams made the postseason. This year, the field has been expanded to seven.
In fact, the Browns enter Game 16 as the No. 7 seed. They can do no worse than stay at No. 7 if they beat Pittsburgh.
For the sake of discussion, let’s assume the Browns beat the Steelers and get to 11- 5. Here’s a look at where they would fit into the postseason if the favorites win in other key games.
The Chiefs ( 14- 1) get a first- round bye as the No. 1 seed no matter what happens in their game against the Chargers.
The Bills ( 12- 3) would get the No. 2 seed by winning Game 16 against Miami.
A loss at Cleveland would drop Pittsburgh to 12- 4 but the Steelers still would be AFC North champs, seeded third.
Tennessee, 11- 5 with a win at Houston, would be AFC South champion.
Baltimore would get to 11- 5 with a home win over the Bengals. The Ravens would be the No. 5 seed based on tiebreakers.
An 11- 5 Browns team would be the No. 6 seed.
Indianapolis would reach 11- 5 with a home win over Jacksonville and be the No. 7 seed behind the 11- 5 Browns.
Miami would fall to 10- 6 with a loss at Buffalo and be the odd man out.
First- round playoff matchups, in this scenario, would be Indianapolis at Buffalo, Cleveland at Pittsburgh, and Baltimore at Tennessee. Kansas City would await the lowest- seeded survivor.
If Miami wins the Dolphins- Bills game, Miami would be in and Indianapolis would be out.
The only “if ” in Cleveland’s way is a “W.” If the Browns beat Pittsburgh, they’re in. Even as the Steelers rest some starters, including quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, it’s a big if.
Since their 10- 6 year, the Browns are 0- 8 when facing Pittsburgh in Game 16s.
The Browns can lose and be 10- 6 and still get in. How? The easy way would be for the Colts to fall to 10- 6 by losing to the Jaguars. Browns fans aren’t getting their hopes up about that. Jacksonville ( 1- 14) has lost its last three games by a combined 111- 41 score.
The only other way in for a 10- 6 Browns team is complicated. It would require the Titans losing and the Ravens and the Dolphins winning.
The unlikely event of a tie could tweak things a bit. A Bengals- Eagles game produced the only tie in 2020.
The Browns are immersed in an expansion- era first, winning to get in, and not having to worry about anything else.