USA TODAY International Edition
QB play and fast start may decide champion
The storylines for Monday’s College Football Playoff championship game are what fans would hope for every season. Alabama and Ohio State are two of the sport’s traditional powers that have won national championships and Heisman Trophies across decades dating to the middle of the last century.
The programs have met four times, with the last game coming six years ago in the playoff semifinal at the Sugar Bowl when the Buckeyes prevailed.
Star power will be on display. Alabama has three of the top five finishers in the Heisman Trophy race, including winner DeVonta Smith. Ohio State quarterback Justin Fields finished sixth in voting that took place before his dominant performance against Clemson in the semifinals Jan. 1.
There’s also the coaching matchup that has Nick Saban going for his seventh national championship, which would break a tie for first place with Bear Bryant, against Ryan Day, who is in just his second full season.
It shapes up to be an exciting and intriguing finish to the season.
The four keys to victory for each team:
Alabama
Make Fields uncomfortable: The health of the Ohio State quarterback remains uncertain after he threw for six touchdowns against Clemson. He was wincing throughout the second half after a hit to his torso late in the second quarter. It’s important for Alabama to find out early how significantly he may or may not be injured. This will mean blitzing him on passing downs and forcing him to take hits if he wants to use his running ability. A killer’s instinct is needed with the best player on the other team wounded. The worst thing the Crimson Tide can do is back off and let him get into rhythm. He showed in the semifinal that when given time to throw he will find open receivers even with the injury.
Mac the knife: Alabama quarterback Mac Jones leads the nation in passing efficiency and is second with 36 touchdown throws. Much of his success comes from the offensive line that has protected him and opened holes for running back Najee Harris. By sticking to the same script against the Buckeyes and their pass rush, Jones should have time to find Smith and potentially Jaylen Waddle, who could be returning from injury, in the passing game. This typically ends in back- breaking big plays that demoralize a defense and let the Crimson Tide comfortably cruise to victory.
Play error- free: Opposing defenses have found it difficult to stop Alabama’s
offense that ranks No. 2 in scoring ( 48.2 points) and No. 6 in total offense ( 535 yards). Before the semifinals, the Crimson Tide had scored at least 35 points in 24 consecutive games.
The key against Ohio State is not to stopping themselves. Penalties wipe out big plays or create long- yardage situations. Turnovers end possessions and create momentum for the opponent. Alabama has avoided those miscues. Jones has thrown just four interceptions in his 357 attempts. The Tide’s plus- 11 turnover margin is third in the country. Doing what has been done for 12 previous games is the recipe for success.
Be solid on special teams: The third phase of the game is overlooked. However, it can provide hidden yards by changing field position and directly result in points. There are some areas where Crimson Tide has shown weakness. They rank 106th out of 127 teams in net punting and 119th in kickoff returns. There are also some strengths. Smith, in addition to his prowess as a receiver, is averaging 24.3 yards on his nine punt returns. Will Reichard has been outstanding, making all 13 of his field- goal attempts and 77 of his PATs. As long as Alabama plays Ohio State even here then the scales tip in its favor.
Ohio State
Keep Sermon going: Trey Sermon became a dominant running threat for the Buckeyes in the Big Ten championship game with a school- record 331 yards and followed that with 193 against Clemson. Establishing him as a threat will take pressure off Fields to carry the offense. This is especially important with the uncertainty around the quarterback’s health. Sermon has shown against two strong defenses he is physically and athletic enough to carry the load. He can continue to make plays and be incorporated into the passing game.
Double DeVonta: The Ohio State secondary has been considered its weak link after allowing Indiana quarterback Michael Penix Jr. to throw for almost 500 yards against the Buckeyes. Now comes their biggest test of the season. While Alabama has depth in its receiving corps, Smith is the clear focal point with 105 of the team’s 288 catches and 20 of its 37 touchdown receptions. In passing situations, especially on third down, it is important to take away the first option for Mac Jones and make him look in another direction.
Start fast: What makes Alabama so difficult to defend is its ability to be balanced. The threat of a running game opens up its play- action passing and gives room to its talented receivers. If you add extra defensive backs to protect against the pass, the Tide will simply give the ball to Harris and let him grind out yards on the ground. One way to neutralize this balance is jumping out to an early lead. The Crimson Tide are not accustomed to playing from behind. The added pressure of the championship game could get them to press and become more predictable on offense.
Make my Day: This is undoubtedly the biggest game of Ryan Day’s coaching career. He has won 23 of his 24 games in charge of the Buckeyes and proved himself in the New Year’s Day defeat of Clemson. But this is a different animal. He’s matching wits against one of the greats in college football who has tons of championship game experience. Day has Chip Kelly and Urban Meyer as mentors, which should be beneficial. Day can’t make the moment too big and get out of his comfort zone. Be aggressive and maybe throw in some new wrinkles. You want to go down shooting all of your guns rather than playing it safe.