USA TODAY International Edition
Texas, Oklahoma and SEC speculation
Lot of roadblocks to sort out before it happens
The myriad questions posed by the speculation that Texas and Oklahoma are weeks away from joining the Southeastern Conference begins with this: Are we really doing this again?
Ten years after college football’s map was drawn and redrawn amid massive realignment, the Longhorns and Sooners have the potential to usher in a brand- new landscape defined by 16team behemoth conferences that ignore geography, history and rivalry in chase of larger and larger TV contracts.
According to a “high- ranked college official” cited by the Houston Chronicle, the first outlet to report the story, the Longhorns and Sooners are poised to leave the Big 12 in favor of the SEC “within a couple of weeks.”
It is not just possible but highly plausible the two national powers have inquired about joining the nation’s strongest conference, especially given the millions of dollars in annual payouts separating teams in the Big 12 from the SEC.
The SEC generated $ 729 million in total revenue during the 2020 fiscal year and the conference distributed about $ 45.5 million to each of its 14 member schools. In comparison, the Big 12 reported revenue of $ 409.2 million for fiscal year 2020. Payouts ranged from $ 37 million to $ 40.5 million among its 10 member schools. SEC revenue is set to increase with a 10- year deal with ESPN worth about $ 300 million annually, which is scheduled to go into effect in 2024.
“Speculation always swirls around collegiate athletics,” Texas said in a statement. “We will not address rumors or speculation.”
The speculation comes with additional questions and sticking points:
Is this sort of expansion and realignment realistic?
What would happen to the Big 12 – or, better yet, the rest of the Football Bowl Subdivision?
Why would the rest of the SEC go along?
And does this move make any sense from a football perspective?
Realignment on this level – with two of the biggest names in the history of the sport trading one Power Five conference for another – is more than realistic; given the will of the five autonomy leagues to have more control over rules, guidelines and regulations, the creation of several 16- team conferences seems almost inevitable.
But this specific move comes with a number of potential snags. One is whether Oklahoma could leave behind Oklahoma State, or whether statehouse politics would prevent one state school from leaving without the other.
In a similar vein, Texas entering the SEC would come as news to longtime rival Texas A& M, which joined the SEC in part to chart a new path away from the Longhorns’ unsteady grip on the Big 12. “We want to be the only SEC team from the state of Texas,” Texas A& M athletic director Ross Bjork said Wednesday.
Existing TV contracts provide further complications. Besides the SEC’s upcoming contract with ESPN, the Big 12 grant of rights agreement includes a clause designed to dissuade teams from looking elsewhere. Should a team leave before the end of the 2024- 25 year, “that school’s media rights, including revenue, would remain with the Big 12 and not its new conference.”
This specific expansion would have a profound impact on the FBS, however. Texas and Oklahoma leaving for the SEC would leave eight teams in the Big 12, and not one with enough national sway to ensure the league’s long- term survival. More than likely, losing the Longhorns and Sooners would cast the rest of the Big 12 across the FBS. Even if the conference survived, the Big 12 would not have the talent base or national pull to be taken seriously as a member of the current Power Five.
The impact would trickle through the rest of the FBS as the Big Ten, Atlantic Coast and Pac- 12 attempt to keep up with the SEC by adding two or four teams. Current members of the Big 12 would be targets. So would teams in the American Athletic Conference and, to a lesser degree, the Mountain West. As always, Notre Dame would be a prime target.
Why would the SEC want to expand, especially less than a year after signing that mammoth deal with ESPN? The network would have to agree to a renegotiation with Texas and Oklahoma in the fold; if not, the current deal would be split 16 ways, not 14. What good does less money – even if it would still be a huge amount of money – do for teams in the bottom half of the SEC, which would then find it even harder to navigate toward mediocrity with two more powerhouse programs on the schedule?
Even the upper crust of the SEC would have to be convinced. Adding the Longhorns and Sooners does nothing for Alabama, which doesn’t need another premier opponent on its schedule to impress the College Football Playoff selection committee. Likewise for Georgia, Florida, LSU or whichever team wins the conference championship; if anything, Texas and Oklahoma would make things more complicated.
And as the playoff ponders a 12- team bracket with automatic bids for the six highest- rated conference champions in the near future, it’s worth asking why the Longhorns and Sooners would willingly choose to toss aside the relatively easy road afforded by the Big 12 for the treacherous pathway formed by a 16team SEC.
It’s a good question for Texas, which can’t even get to the top of the Big 12, and an even better one for Oklahoma, which has dominated the Big 12 since the early 2000s and would seem to have a playoff spot almost on lockdown when the bracket does expand.
But these questions ignore the real driver behind college football expansion. Given the potential revenue created by a move to the SEC, of course the two programs have sought out a seat at the SEC’s table. How could they not ask?
“I bet they would,” Texas A& M coach Jimbo Fisher said.