USA TODAY International Edition
Biden faces big questions in State of the Union
Ahead of Tuesday’s State of the Union, President Joe Biden faces the same unhappy situation as his four most recent predecessors. His party’s unified control of Capitol Hill was lost in a midterm election, meaning the friendly audience at last year’s speech has been replaced by a more skeptical one. How will he deal with this reality? President George W. Bush – who saw his fellow Republicans lose both chambers of Congress in the 2006 midterms – was especially gracious in acknowledging a new speaker of the House. “And tonight, I have the high privilege and distinct honor of my own, as the first president to begin the State of the Union message with these words: Madam Speaker,” he declared in 2007.
The chamber erupted in applause for the nation’s first female speaker, Democrat Nancy Pelosi of California, although that cordial opening didn’t lessen their clashes that followed over the Iraq War.
In 2019, though, President Donald Trump skipped any pleasantries when he delivered the address after Democrats had regained control of the House and Pelosi was once again speaker. He launched into his remarks without giving her a chance to deliver the traditional welcome. In his speech, he warned Democrats against pursuing “ridiculous, partisan investigations” of him; they investigated him anyway.
This year, the election of the new speaker, Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy of California, wasn’t itself historic except that it took 15 ballots – a modern record, albeit presumably not a distinction he is eager to revisit.
Given today’s polarized politics and Biden’s often- stated commitment to bipartisanship, he may choose to do what Bush did: Acknowledge the other side in a way that signals at least the possibility of working together.
“Let’s just sort of, kind of, join hands again a little bit,” Biden told the National Prayer Breakfast on Thursday, the morning after his first White House meeting with McCarthy as speaker. The president said their meeting had gone well, but in a sign of the times, he felt compelled to add, “Not a joke.”
Are happy days here again?
He faces a conundrum. The president wants to claim credit for near- record low unemployment and continued economic growth, but he risks looking out of touch unless he also notes the continued bite of inflation and the prospect of a recession this year. In 2021, his failure to take the threat of inflation more seriously, and sooner, cost him standing on his handling of the economy.
“He needs to continue to prove to the vast majority of Americans that his economic prescriptions are the right direction and are working,” said Faiz Shakir, strategist and manager of Bernie Sanders’ 2020 presidential campaign.
Asked for Biden’s big task in the speech, Matt Bennett of the moderate Democratic group Third Way responded simply: “To sell optimism.”
Americans aren’t yet convinced. A USA TODAY/ Suffolk University Poll at the end of last year found 45% of registered voters said the country was already in a recession. Another 15% said it was in a depression; 20% saw stagnation. Just 15% said an economic recovery was underway.
The survey of 1,000 registered voters, taken by landline and cellphone Dec. 7- 11, had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1 percentage points.
Biden wants to lift the country’s confidence in the economic course he has set while cautioning that the positive trends could be upended if Congress doesn’t agree to raise the debt ceiling. At the moment, he says he’ll insist on a “clean” debt ceiling bill. House Republicans are demanding a deal that would include deep spending cuts, but they haven’t specified what those would be.
Is the U. S. commitment to Ukraine beginning to wane?
Last year, Russia invaded Ukraine five days before Biden’s first official State of the Union. His speech was revamped to begin with a declaration of America’s commitment to lead an international coalition against it.
“We, the United States of America, stand with the Ukrainian people,” he said to applause from both sides of the aisle. “We are ready. We are united.”
In the year that followed, Congress approved nearly $ 50 billion in direct humanitarian, financial and military assistance to Ukraine. The Biden administration agreed to provide Kyiv with airto- ground missiles, explosive drones, coastal defense ships, advanced surveillance and radar systems, and sophisticated M1 Abrams tanks.
But some of the GOP lawmakers who have taken power have questioned the cost. “I think people are going to be sitting in a recession, and they’re not going to write a blank check to Ukraine,” McCarthy said before November’s election. Public support also has eroded. In a Pew Research Center survey, 1 in 4 Americans now say the U. S. is providing too much support to Ukraine, 19 points higher than in March.
Does Biden reiterate the full- throated commitment he declared last year?
Does he tackle the intractable?
Biden mentioned his support for some police reform measures last year, including banning chokeholds and requiring body cameras, but he spent more words and more energy decrying the “defund the police” movement backed by some of the most liberal voices in his party. “We should all agree the answer is not to defund the police,” he said then. “It’s to fund the police. Fund them. Fund them.”
Now, his speech follows outrage over the death of 29- year- old Tyre Nichols last month after he was brutally beaten by Memphis police. Nichols’ parents will watch Biden from the gallery.
Black lawmakers are urging Biden to focus on the need for police reform, but they acknowledge Congress was unable to pass the George Floyd Justice in Policing Act even when Democrats controlled both chambers.
As with other explosive issues facing the nation – gun violence and immigration among them – political leaders in Washington have struggled to act.
Does Biden offer fresh approaches that might break the stalemate?
Tune in Tuesday for an answer to that, and more.