BREAKING DOWN NFL BY DIVISIONS
With Super Bowl 50 approaching, let’s take a quick look at what we’ve learned this 2015 NFL season. Like the Oscars, the ballots are in. Let’s begin by taking a division-by-division look at what we saw, from a Vegas perspective, during the regular season this campaign.
AFC EAST
The division held its own against the NFC East, winning nine of the 16 games. Interestingly, the visiting team managed to capture 11 wins. The AFC East finished a combined 36-28 SU (straight up) overall, tying the NFC South for best overall honors. While just one team in the AFC East suffered a losing record (Miami Dolphins), only the New England Patriots landed a postseason berth.
New York Jets: 8-6-2 ATS (against the spread).
— Miami:
5-11 ATS.
AFC NORTH
Despite two teams making the playoffs (Cincinnati Bengals and Pittsburgh Steelers), the AFC North was weighed down by the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns and finished 30-34 SU. A blasé 8-8 mark against the NFC West contributed to the division’s mediocre mark.
— Cincinnati: 12-3-1 ATS (tops in the AFC).
— Cleveland: 5-10-1 ATS.
AFC SOUTH
As bad as the NFC East was this season, the AFC South was worse. Teams in the division went 25-39 SU overall, making them the league leader in fewest wins and most losses. They also owned the worst collective spread mark in the league, going 29-35 ATS. It’s what happens when only one team sports a winning record (Houston Texans, 9-7) while another owns the first overall in this year’s draft (Tennessee Titans, 3-13). — Houston: 9-7 ATS.
— Tennessee: 5-11 ATS. The division sent two teams to this season’s playoffs (Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs) and was strong away from home, sporting a 17-16 SU and 23-9-1 ATS record. As a result, its teams excelled as underdogs, going 18-12 ATS. — Denver: 8-7-1 ATS.
— Kansas City, Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers: 8-8 ATS. Note: The Chargers were the only team in the league to lose SU in all six division matchups.
NFC EAST
If it weren’t for the Washington Redskins’ 4-0 record to conclude the season, this division would have crushed the AFC South for worst overall record in the league. Instead, it finished 26-38 com- bined and avoided the ignominy of having a losing team win the division. — Washington: 9-7 ATS.
— Dallas Cowboys: 4-11-1 ATS.
NFC NORTH
This was the best division against the spread this season, going 37-27 collectively. That effort was spearheaded by the Minnesota Vikings’ league-best 13-3 ATS mark. The NFC North also dominated its non-conference schedule, going 10-6 SU and 11-5 ATS against the AFC West. And like the NFC West, it, too, sent two teams to the playoffs (Minnesota and the Green Bay Packers).
— Detroit
Lions: 7-9 ATS. Thanks to a brilliant 15-1 effort by the Carolina Panthers, the division tied the AFC East with a league-best 36-28 SU overall record in 2015. The Panthers were the only team in the NFC South Division with a winning record.
— Carolina: 11-5 ATS. — Atlanta Falcons: 6-10 ATS.
NFC WEST
The division fell one win shy of the AFC East and the NFC South for best record, going 35-29 overall. The Arizona Cardinals tied Carolina for the best road record at 7-1. — Arizona: 9-7 ATS.
— San Francisco 49ers: 7-9 ATS.
ZIG ZAGS
Four NFL teams improved from losers in 2014 to winners in 2015: Carolina, Minnesota, the New York Jets and Washington.
On the flip side, five winning teams in 2014 — the Ravens, Dallas Cowboys, Lions, Philadelphia Eagles and Chargers — had losing records.
Of 38 teams that went from losers to winners from one season to the next over the previous 30 seasons, 16 reverted to their losing ways the next campaign.
On the other side of the coin, 30 teams went from winners to losers over the course of a year, with only 13 of them managing to re-emerge as winners the following season.
NICE DOGGIE
Being the dog lover that I am, it was nice to see NFL underdogs bark in a coveted role this season, namely as home dogs.
These pedigree puppies were best in show when taking points at home when playing off a loss vs. an opponent also off a loss, going 15-10 ATS.
Better yet, when taking points at home off a loss of more than 14 points when facing foes off a loss, they went a perfect 6-0 ATS — winning five of the games in straight-up fashion.
PATH TO THE SUPER BOWL
Only two teams managed to go unscathed in non-conference games during the 2015 season: Carolina and Denver. Both teams went 4-0 SU in head-to-head battles outside the conference.
AND THE OSCAR GOES TO ...
Best team in a favorite role: Houston (5-1 ATS)
Best team in an underdog role: Minnesota (5-1 ATS)
Best team in division games: Houston, Minnesota and New Orleans Saints (5-1 ATS)
Best team in non-division games: Carolina and Minnesota (8-2 ATS)
Best team in games off a win: Cincinnati (8-2-1 ATS)
Best team in games off a loss: Minnesota (5-0 ATS)
Lawrence is publisher of the weekly “Playbook Football” newsletter at Playbook.com and host of the “Marc Lawrence Against the Spread” football podcast.