Experts draft offers early insights
The beginning of the fantasy baseball season might seem far away, but for 13 team owners, it’s time to play for real.
Power-hitting Arizona Diamondbacks first baseman Paul Goldschmidt was the first name off the board as the Fantasy Sports Trade Association’s experts draft kicked off Jan. 19.
The FSTA draft, in conjunction with the fantasy industry’s annual winter conference, is the first opportunity for fantasy players to see how industry professionals construct their teams.
Goldschmidt, who hit .321 last season with 33 home runs and 110 RBI, got the nod ahead of outfielders Mike Trout of the Los Angeles Angels and Bryce Harper of the Washington Nationals. Those three are considered the top players on nearly every draft board entering the 2016 season, and Scout Fantasy’s “Dr. Roto,” Mark Bloom, had the honor of making the first pick.
The primary story line, however, early in the draft was the selection of eight corner infielders — four first basemen and four third basemen — in the opening round.
FSTA EXPERTS DRAFT FIRST ROUND
1. 1B Paul Goldschmidt — Mark Bloom, Scout Fantasy
2. OF Mike Trout — Jeff Erickson, Rotowire
3. OF Bryce Harper — Steve Gardner and Howard Kamen, USA TODAY Sports*
4. SP Clayton Kershaw — Anthony Perri, Fantistics
5. 3B Nolan Arenado — Ray Murphy, Baseball HQ
6. SS Carlos Correa — Nando DiFino, Fantasy Sports Network
7. 3B Josh Donaldson — Charlie Wiegert, Godfather of Fantasy Sports
8. 3B Kris Bryant — Greg Ambrosius and Tom Kessenich, Stats Inc./NFBC
9. 1B Anthony Rizzo — Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf, Colton and the Wolfman
10. 1B Miguel Cabrera — Ray Flowers, SiriusXM Radio
11. OF Andrew McCutchen — Jeff Mans, Fantasy Alarm
12. 3B Manny Machado — Lawr Michaels and Todd Zola, Mastersball
13. 1B Edwin Encarnacion — Ron Shandler, RonShandler.com *-defending league champion Outfielders were the hot commodity in the second round, with six of the 13 teams grabbing one. Perhaps the most eye-opening selection was the Boston Red Sox’s Mookie Betts going to Baseball HQ’s Murphy with the 22nd overall pick.
Two catchers went in the second round: Buster Posey to the USA TODAY Sports tandem at No. 24 and Kyle Schwarber to Bloom to close out the round.
As for the price of elite starting pitching, Kershaw was the only one taken in the top 24 ... but beginning with Max Scherzer at No. 25, a total of 16 starters flew off the board in the next 35 picks (to the end of Round 5).
The first closer: Wade Davis of the Kansas City Royals to Bloom to lead off Round 6.
THIRD PICK IS THE CHARM
When the team owners chose their draft positions, the spots at both ends — No. 1 and No. 13 — were the first ones selected. But No. 3 seems to be the optimal spot.
Order them just about any way you want, but Trout, Harper and Goldschmidt are head and shoulders above the rest of the other first-rounders after they finished first or second in their league’s MVP voting. All three combine power and speed with an ability to hit for average.
By drafting third, I was guaranteed an elite player to serve as my cornerstone — and I’d have the advantage of picking earlier in the second round. Once Goldschmidt and Trout went first and second, Harper was mine.
One of the key components in winning last year’s league title was a productive catching duo of Posey and Russell Martin. Going after Posey again in the second round might seem a bit early, but the catching pool could be even shallower than it was last year. (After Schwarber was taken two picks later, the next catcher taken was Jonathan Lucroy in the eighth round.)
With 21 spots between my picks in the third and fourth rounds, the priority turned to getting an ace. My personal preference of Madison Bumgarner over Jake Arrieta, David Price, Chris Sale and the rest came into play. For me, the combination of his proven durability, his elite strikeout rate (9.6 K/9), his age (26) and his home park rank him ahead of everyone except Kershaw among starting pitchers.
EMBRACING RISK
One of the biggest things fantasy owners have to guard against in drafts is recency bias. Often, players who perform exceptionally well in the playoffs are overdrafted the next season.
The reverse is true, too. Players who underachieve or are injured one season see their draft stock plummet the next.
Anthony Rendon and Michael Brantley were top-25 picks in 2015, but both come with injury risks attached this season.
Rendon has had one completely healthy season dating to his college days. He missed time last season with knee and abdominal injuries that sapped his power. But he should be 100% healthy this spring.
Brantley had offseason shoulder surgery and is expected to spend at least the first month of the season on the disabled list.
Rendon in the fourth and Brantley in the 14th could turn out to be excellent values if they return to their form of 2014, when both were top-15 players.
That brings up an important strategic point for fantasy owners who have early drafts: The greater the gap between draft day and opening day, the greater the opportunity for perceptions and circumstances to change. For that reason, I’m more inclined to take a few more risks in the middle and late rounds.
A perfect example is New York Yankees closer Aroldis Chapman. Because of an incident in Miami during the winter, Chapman could be subject to a suspension under Major League Baseball’s new domesticviolence policy. Although he’s unquestionably the most dominant closer in the game now, the possibility of him missing 10, 25 or 40 games has sent his average draft position plummeting.
While Davis was the first closer taken, Chapman lasted until the middle of the seventh — 22 picks later. That draft spot reflects the uncertainty over how many games he might miss.
There’s also a chance he might not be suspended at all. Unlike with injuries, a suspension doesn’t impact a player’s ability to perform once he returns.
Wherever there’s uncertainty, there’s also the potential for significant profit.
FUN MOMENT OF THE NIGHT
SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio provided live coverage of the draft from the Omni Dallas Hotel. And perhaps the highlight of the broadcast came midway through the proceedings when teams began to draft a little more for need than for talent.
Fair or not, St. Louis Cardinals pitcher Adam Wainwright slipped to the seventh round before being selected by USA TODAY Sports. Coming off a torn Achilles tendon and entering his age-34 season, the onetime ace called in to the show to protest the lack of respect.
“If these are so-called experts doing this draft, maybe the guys should start looking for a different occupation,” Wainwright told hosts Kyle Elfrink and Derek Van Riper. “I still feel young. I feel good. All you guys who passed on me in the first six rounds … I’m going to make you regret that decision.”
That’s exactly the kind of player this team needs to repeat as league champion.
FOLLOW SENIOR FANTASY EDITOR STEVEN GARDNER