10 NCAA bubble teams with the most to prove
The NCAA men’s basketball tournament selection committee cares as much about what a team did in November as what it does in February.
But at this point in the season, teams hoping to make the field of 68 can control only what lies ahead.
With less than six weeks until selection Sunday, crunchtime has arrived.
Here’s a look at 10 fringe NCAA tournament teams with the most to prove right now.
1. KANSAS STATE
A signature win can make all the difference. The Wildcats got one by upsetting projected NCAA tournament No. 1 seed Oklahoma last weekend, a victory that revived the team’s postseason life. Kansas State plays in the country’s highest-rated conference, which leads to a top-10 strength of schedule, to cover for a 3-7 league record. But Oklahoma is Kansas State’s only top-50 win. There will be plenty of chances to get more in the Big 12. One thing the Wildcats must avoid: losing to a bad team such as TCU, which they play Feb. 16 and March 2.
2. LSU
The Tigers, led by freshman sensation Ben Simmons, are alone atop the Southeastern Conference standings. Yet their résumé stains and shortcomings nearly trump their conference supremacy. LSU has one top-50 win, and its Ratings Percentage Index (RPI) is floating in the 70s. The biggie: three losses to teams outside the top 100. More big wins in SEC play should secure the Tigers. Still, there’s small margin for error.
3. CLEMSON
There’s a lot of good on the Tigers’ profile. There’s also a lot of bad. The good: six top-50 wins, including Duke, Miami (Fla.) and Louisville. The bad? A non-conference strength of schedule of 336 is one of the worst in the country and certainly the worst among bubble teams. Essentially, the Tigers are hoping big wins counter that dreadful part of their résumé. The more, the merrier.
4. SAINT JOSEPH’S
The Hawks have only five losses and sport a fantastic RPI of 31. Yet if the season ended today, they’d likely miss the cut. Their best win is against Princeton. Games against top-50 opponents for this team will be under a serious microscope.
5. GONZAGA
The Bulldogs aren’t supposed to be here. They have two All-America-level players in Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer. But because the Zags didn’t do themselves any favors in non-conference play and don’t have their typical stranglehold on the West Coast Conference, they’re in the danger zone. A non-conference clash with SMU is perhaps the most important game of any bubble team at this point.
6. SAINT MARY’S
Unlike Gonzaga, the Gaels don’t have a chance to notch a top-50 win. But if Gonzaga does beat SMU, it would give Saint Mary’s a top-50 win. That’s the type of math that makes it painful to be a decent team in a midmajor conference.
7. INDIANA
The Hoosiers could miss the NCAAs? Really? They were once tied for first place in the Big Ten and were playing great basketball before losing to Penn State on Saturday. But the only top-50 win on its résumé came against Notre Dame. The remaining Big Ten schedule includes Iowa twice, Michigan State, Maryland and Purdue.
8. WISCONSIN
It’s difficult to imagine the Badgers not in the NCAA tournament, especially after back-to-back Final Four runs. The Badgers have played well lately, but they are still digging themselves out of a hole they fell in during the early portion of the season. It’s hard to erase a home loss to a Western Michigan team with a 274 RPI. There are four remaining regular-season games against top-50 opponents in Big Ten play. Each will be vital for Wisconsin’s NCAA hopes.
Injuries, particularly to All-America guard Fred VanVleet, have really hurt the Shockers’ nonconference profile.
They have one top-50 victory, and the Missouri Valley Conference offers no opportunity to get another.
A weekend road loss to Illinois State is exactly what Wichita State did not need.
The Bulldogs were ranked fairly high in the USA TODAY Sports Coaches Poll earlier in the season. But now their résumé seems a bit bare. Butler’s only top-50 win came against Purdue.
There will be Big East Conference games that could boost the Bulldogs’ profile, but they must seize those opportunities. Otherwise, they’re NIT-bound.