Split personalities in April, May
Looking for clues as to why these pitchers have been so up-and-down
We all know that every season has its ebbs and flows. Given that we are just over two months into the 2016 campaign, it is easier now than it might be later in the summer for some of these peaks and valleys to catch our attention.
Here are six pitchers who have had rather stark contrasts between their April and May splits. Taking a closer look at each pitcher’s skills gives us better insight into his true level of performance. As you will see, things are not always as good or as bad as they seem. Michael Wacha, St. Louis Cardinals April: 3.07 ERA, 1.33 WHIP May: 6.75 ERA, 1.66 WHIP If not for some serendipitous breaks when it comes to stranding baserunners, Wacha’s April ERA would have been worse. Though Wacha added strikeouts from April to May (7.4 K/9 to 8.4 K/9), his control worsened (2.8 BB/9 to 3.9 BB/9) and his luck soured both in terms of batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and leaving runners on base. The end result was an unsightly ERA and WHIP.
The terrific strikeout-to-walk ratio Wacha displayed through the first five months of 2015 (3.4 K/BB) has plummeted to a subpar 2.3 K/BB, and his velocity is down 1.5 mph from a year ago. It was easy to dismiss his September 2015 swoon (7.88 ERA and 6.8 BB/9) as a product of fatigue setting in as he exceeded his 2014 workload by 76 innings. But it’s fair to wonder if the erosion of skills and velocity might be health related. Absent adjustments, the 24-year-old could have a tough time posting a sub-3.75 ERA over the remainder of the season. Matt Shoemaker, Los Angeles Angels April: 9.15 ERA, 1.89 WHIP May: 3.28 ERA, 1.05 WHIP Shoemaker followed a promising 2014 campaign with a disappointing 2015, and things got even worse in April. He issued far too many free passes (4.4 BB/9) and suffered a great deal of misfortune in preventing baserunners from crossing the plate. His strikeout rate also dipped below average (7.0 K/9). The shoddy performance earned him a demotion to Class AAA Salt Lake (Salt Lake City) on May 1.
The 29-year-old returned 10 days later and struggled in his initial outing, so he went back to the drawing board. In the three starts that followed, Shoemaker threw his worst pitch, a 91-mph fastball he often struggled to command, 10% less and ramped up the usage of his best swing-andmiss pitch, the splitter, from 21% to a whopping 46%. The results were eye-opening: a 2.18 ERA, 12.2 K/9 and 0.9 BB/9 in 202⁄ innings.
While it would be unrealistic to expect this type of dominance to continue, it’s clear Shoemaker has reinvented himself as a pitcher. In just one month, he has gone from one of MLB’s worst pitchers to perhaps one of its most intriguing. Vincent Velasquez, Philadelphia Phillies April: 1.26 ERA, 0.91 WHIP May: 5.79 ERA, 1.59 WHIP Velasquez, who was acquired from the Houston Astros in December, won the fifth starter job with a fine spring. He then hit the ground running in April, piling up a boatload of strikeouts (11.7 K/9) while minimizing free passes (2.1 BB/9) and benefiting from a fortunate .246 BABIP. The 24-yearold ran into trouble last month as his control became a problem (3.7 BB/9), his BABIP regressed (.366) and batters slugged six home runs against him (compared with two in April).
The occasional bouts of wildness are problematic, particularly considering Velasquez’s fly-ball tendencies and hitterfriendly home stadium. He has the talent to succeed at a high level, but his capacity to more consistently command his pitches and keep the ball in the yard will determine whether he reaches his full potential. The future is bright, but more ups and downs are likely as he works toward an unspecified innings limit in 2016. Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays April: 2.60 ERA, 0.69 WHIP May: 7.18 ERA, 1.72 WHIP Smyly entered 2016 as a bit of a wild card after shoulder soreness limited him to 662⁄ innings in 2015. Though he was aided by an unusually low BABIP (.173) in April, he again exhibited pinpoint control and an ability to miss bats (1.6 BB/9 and 10.6 K/9). Those ugly May numbers are largely because of extreme BABIP regression (.385) and horrible luck preventing runners from crossing the plate. But it’s also worth noting that his walk rate has risen (2.9 BB/9) while his strikeouts have decreased (8.3 K/9), so it wasn’t entirely bad fortune.
The 26-year-old has reportedly been working through mechanical issues since mid-May, so that has undoubtedly been a factor in the recent downturn. If Smyly can iron that out, he is capable of being a major asset, provided he can avoid another stint on the disabled list. Taijuan Walker, Seattle Mariners April: 1.44 ERA, 0.96 WHIP May: 4.91 ERA, 1.26 WHIP Walker flashed his immense potential in the season’s opening month, as he posted an elite combination of control (1.1 BB/9) and dominant stuff (9.0 K/9) while inducing far more ground balls than ever before. But once the calendar rolled over to May, the 23-year-old’s walk rate more than doubled (2.5 BB/9), the strikeouts stopped coming as frequently (7.7 K/9) and a significant portion of those ground balls became fly balls. After allowing one home run in April, he was touched for a whopping nine in May.
Walker has, at times, displayed the makings of a front-line starter. But until he puts all of the pieces together, an ERA worse than 3.75 is unlikely. 5.76 ERA, 1.40 WHIP 3.49 ERA, 1.09 WHIP Kazmir’s tenure with the Dodgers began in poor fashion, thanks in large part to horrendous luck in stranding baserunners. There were positive signs in May, including a 1-mph uptick in velocity and a surge in strikeouts (7.6 K/9 to 10.7 K/9). An auspicious .221 BABIP and some newfound resourcefulness with runners on base also helped his cause. Meanwhile, home runs have been a bugaboo (12 allowed), but that figures to normalize going forward.
The 32-year-old has logged more than 1901⁄ innings once in his career, so there is certainly risk here.
In fact, he was bothered, at least through April, by discomfort between his left wrist and thumb stemming from an injury suffered while batting in spring training. However, with good health, a plethora of strikeouts and a near-3.50 ERA could be forthcoming.