Young arms to carry your team
Underlying metrics suggest these starters can flourish in second half
Making a young starting pitcher an integral part of your fantasy starting rotation can be a scary thing to do. Young pitchers often are more volatile than their experienced counterparts. They also stand a better chance of losing their rotation spot when they hit a rough spot.
That said, investing in the right young pitchers can pay big dividends, especially in keeper leagues. Identifying which hurlers are worth the investment is not as easy as looking at surface stats such as wins and losses or ERA, though. A more effective approach involves looking deeper into strikeouts, walks and ground-ball rates.
Here are young starting pitchers with emerging skills who can be worth rostering down the stretch and relying on in keeper leagues: Seattle Mariners southpaw
is not getting much attention as a future rotation building block. After all, his 4.24 ERA and 1.71 WHIP have done more damage than good. But few starters of any age have been more skilled than Paxton has in 2016.
He owns an impactful strikeout rate (9.6 K/9), does a good job of keeping batted balls on the ground and has three strikeout pitches in addition to his upper-90s fastball. The key for Paxton will be staying healthy. If he can do so, he stands a great shot at having a big second half. Meanwhile another Mariner,
is on his way to a mini-breakout. Credit improved command. His strikeoutto-walk ratio (K/BB) has improved in two consecutive seasons. Furthermore, he is equally effective against lefties and righties. Walker owns a 4.0 strikeout-to-walk rate (K/BB) against both sets of hitters. He has steady mid-90s fastball velocity, too, and his cut-fastball is emerging as a strikeout weapon. Cutting down on the home runs he gives up will help Walker sustain a near-3 ERA.
of the Chicago Cubs does not have the pedigree or flashy raw stuff that you expect to find in an emerging starter. But few starters are better than Hendricks at getting ahead of hitters or pounding the strike zone — qualities that have helped him sustain excellent control. He also experienced a surge in his strikeout rate in June (9.5 K/9), and he owns one of the best changeups in the National League. He also keeps the ball on the ground at a high rate. Hendricks is a legitimate sub-3.50 ERA pitcher.
of the Kansas City Royals started the season slowly, but few starting pitchers have been better since the start of May. The lefty posted a top-tier 10.5 K/9 in May and followed that up with an even better 11.3 K/9 in June.
In addition to a steady mid-90s fastball, Duffy is another pitcher with three supplemental punchout pitches. After having injury issues, he is showing signs of being able to make a sustained impact in a starting role.
Another southpaw — of the Tampa Rays — has looked like a rotation anchor in two out of three months in 2016. He paired an elite strikeout rate in April and June with pinpoint control. While Smyly does not possess the fastball velocity Paxton and Duffy have, his slider and cut-fastball are legitimate strikeout pitches and he gets a lot of movement on his four-seam fastball.
The concern with Smyly is his lack of durability, as he has yet to top 160 innings during a season. Still, his superb skills give Smyly and his 5.33 ERA plenty of stretchrun upside.
Righty of the Cleveland Indians has been overshadowed by teammate Danny Salazar this season, but it could be argued Carrasco has a better shot at sticking as an upper-tier starting pitcher.
Carrasco has shown excellent control in each of the last three seasons, and he can strike out batters at a high clip — 9.0 K/9 or better in each of those years. He also can induce ground balls at a high rate and shows no significant lefty/righty splits. The missing piece is durability, as he has yet to eclipse 200 innings over an entire season. Phildelphia Phillies right-hander
started the season looking like a future rotation anchor — especially in May, when he put up an elite collection of skills, including a 9.0 K/9, 1.6 BB/9 and 61% ground-ball rate.
While Nola’s 10.42 ERA and 2.58 WHIP in June might make it seem like those early returns were fluky, the marks were the product of an inflated .528 batting average on balls in play more than anything else. In addition, he has posted a minimum 9.0 K/9 in each month and has been able to keep the ball on the ground. Now is a great time to buy low.
The Baltimore Orioles’ owns some of the best raw stuff in the game, including steady mid-90s velocity and a splitter that leaves batters struggling to make contact.
The arsenal allows Gausman to have success against lefty and righty bats. (He has an excellent 6.3 K/BB vs. left-handers.) If Gausman can get ahead of hitters at a higher rate, he’ll have a better chance of avoiding some of the blowups that have plagued him in the past. With good health, Gausman has the skills and upside to become one of the best starting pitchers in the American League.
Powerful righty of the Detroit Tigers has emerged as one of the AL’s most promising young pitchers in his age-23 season. In addition to a mid-90s fastball, Fulmer owns a slider and a changeup that generate a lot of swings and misses. Using his changeup more could help Fulmer improve his mediocre 1.7 K/BB vs. lefties. He is striking out nearly one-third of the righties he faces, leading him to a very good 4.2 K/BB against them.
Former No. 3 overall pick is starting to fulfill that upside with the Colorado Rockies, even though it might not be apparent in his 4.81 ERA. Few pitchers have been better over the last month. He owns a great 9.9 K/9 and 2.3 BB/9 over that period, along with a heavy ground-ball tilt. At 24, Gray has made significant gains this season, even if they might not be apparent in his surface stats.
Right-hander of the New York Yankees will not be viewed as an up-and-coming rotation cornerstone, especially after the horrible surface stats he produced early in the season. But owners who held him after his poor start have been rewarded with the sterling 2.75 ERA and 0.97 WHIP over the past month.
Those marks have been accompanied by a sturdy foundation of elite skills, including a 12.3 K/9, 2.0 BB/9 and a fastball velocity that has increased to 95 mph. He’s another pitcher with 3.00-ERA stuff who could sustain his stats at that level if he can cut down on the home runs he gives up.