Why WAR may be best All-Star indicator,
Statistic goes well beyond hitting stats
Voting for the All-Star teams used to mean drooling over players’ home run and RBI totals for the first half of the year. Fortunately, our understanding of the relative importance of the game’s various aspects — such as batting, fielding, baserunning, the scarcity of players at premium positions and finding ones who avoid hitting into double plays — has greatly improved.
Wins Above Replacement (WAR) determines the run-scoring value, either positive or negative, for a player’s performance in each area, and then translates his total runs added into a number of wins, depending on the run-scoring environment of the particular season. In recent years, each added win has carried a value of between 9 and 10 runs.
Through WAR, we can see that Francisco Lindor has been among the 10 most valuable position players through the first half of the season. His offensive performance so far has been worth a very good +7 runs above league average while his great defense has been worth +8 runs. Adding in that his position, shortstop, is a premium one, Lindor has registered +20 runs overall relative to league average, good for a 3.5 WAR entering the week.
In previous years, Lindor might have flown under our collective radar as a middle infielder with good but not eye-popping offensive numbers, but WAR allows us to see that he’s worthy of some top-five MVP votes, at least at the halfway mark of the season.
Lindor is not alone among big-value shortstops this year. Among the top 30 position players in WAR, six are shortstops, with Lindor joined by Xander Bogaerts, Corey Seager, Brandon Crawford, Carlos Correa and Manny Machado, who has gone from being extremely valuable as a third baseman to an inner-circle elite talent as a shortstop.
These shortstops, all valuable players, have taken different routes to reach their totals of runs above average. Machado, Seager, Bogaerts and Correa have put up great offensive numbers with at least 15 runs above average apiece with the bat. Only Machado also has put up positive contributions with the glove, but Bogaerts has compensated for his -4 fielding runs by adding +4 runs from his baserunning skills. Lindor has been balanced between his bat and glove, while all of Crawford’s positive value has come from his stellar defense.
Each of these players was on pace to produce at least 30 runs above average on the year, which translates to at least three extra wins for his team. A team fielding eight such position players and an otherwise average roster would be projected to finish with more than 105 wins.
While such a large number of great shortstops is unusual, there hasn’t been a shortage of quality third basemen in recent memory. Going back to 1998, the first year the major leagues had 30 teams, an average of 4.33 third basemen finished among the top 30 position players in WAR for each season through 2015. Halfway through 2016, six are in position to finish in the top 30. These are usual suspects Josh Donaldson, Adrian Beltre and Nolan Arenado, plus Kyle Seager, offensive juggernaut Matt Carpenter and Kris Bryant, who in 2016 has played more games at third so far than any other position.
Overall, 2016 is looking like an anomaly from the previous 18 seasons.
Not only are six shortstops among the top 30 unprecedented in the 30-team era, but the skill infielders (second base, third base and shortstop) represent 17 of the top 30 players of the first half of 2016, compared with an average of 10.9 players from those position from 1998 to 2015. The three outfield spots provide nine of the top 30 in 2016, compared with an average of 12.5 over the historical period.
The year 2016 also is on pace to be the first season since 2002 without a catcher among the top 30 position players. Heading into the break, Salvador Perez is just on the outside, tied for 32nd-most WAR. Perez is the highest-ranking Kansas City Royal, meaning they are among 11 teams failing to place a single player among the top 30. Led by the Boston Red Sox with five and the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros with three apiece, just 19 teams provide the 30 players atop the list. That’s typical of the 30-team era, when an average of 20.1 teams have been represented among the top 30 players.
As always, this year’s All Star Game will exclude key players who have provided significant value in 2016. Fantasy sports induces many fans to continue to focus on offensive numbers in valuing players, but the game on the field is won with bats, gloves, speed and brains.
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