All-around contributors can tip race
A standard fantasy roster strategy builds a foundation with early draft picks or top-dollar auction buys, then balances shortages in categories by acquiring specialists throughout the draft to get the necessary stolen bases, power or strikeouts.
Another way is to look for balanced players by targeting “allrounders,” players who might not contribute big numbers in any particular category but contribute useful numbers in all the categories. These players often can be acquired at a discount because they don’t stand out from the crowd later in the draft.
We don’t mean “all-rounders” such as Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Paul Goldschmidt. We’re looking for players in later rounds or with lower prices.
To figure out what contributions a late-draft all-rounder needs to make, we made some assumptions:
A 15-team mixed league
Standard 5x5 categories (batting average, home runs, RBI, runs, stolen bases, wins, ERA, WHIP, strikeouts, saves)
14 hitters/nine pitchers
7,100 at-bats and 1,200 inning pitched per team
We looked at several experts’ leagues and several home leagues hosted by the stats service OnRoto.com. We found 115 overall points was a typical pennantwinning score. That equates to scoring an average of 11.5 points per category — in other words, finishing between fourth and fifth place in each of the 10 categories.
Across our sample leagues, the fourth-fifth averages were:
1,025 runs scores, 285 home runs, 1,001 RBI, 135 stolen bases and a .272 batting average
92 wins, 85 saves, a 3.68 ERA, a 1.23 WHIP and 1,325 strikeouts
We simulated a draft by removing the top 90 hitters and 45 starting pitchers by dollar value, and the top 30 closers by projected saves. We allotted all five remaining pitcher slots to starters and for this exercise ignored wins, since they are so variable from year to year.
After evenly assigning “drafted” players’ results to the teams, we calculated the nine remaining hitters needed to add 48 runs, 14 home runs, 45 RBI, seven stolen bases and a .266 batting average. All-round pitchers needed a 4.14 ERA, a 1.32 WHIP and 167 strikeouts.
Finally, we filtered BaseballHQ.com’s player projections to find lower-value “undrafted” hitters and pitchers who hit or came close to category targets.
HITTERS
Catcher is tough to fill this year, but J.T. Realmuto of the Miami Marlins might be worth a look. Realmuto’s 60-12-53-12-.274 (runs, home runs, RBI, steals, batting average) projection meets all the categories except a margin-of-error homer shortfall. That seems forgivable since he’s above par in batting average and steals.
Many fantasy insiders are warning that Cleveland Indians first baseman Carlos Santana’s 34 home runs last year felt like a fluke. But even if he falls back to his projection of 77-27-83-6-.249, he’s a better value than the late eighth/early ninth round. He still hits the ball harder than the league average, and his fly balls support the home run projection. His line-drive rate is worrisome but could recover a little, helping his batting average.
Los Angeles Dodgers second baseman Logan Forsythe has a projection of 64-17-50-7-.258. He would be a full all-rounder with a few more batting average points, and getting them wouldn’t be a shock, since he hits the ball harder than the league average and hit .281 in 2015. Forsythe’s projection factors in some injury risk. St. Louis Cardinals shortstop
Aledmys Diaz projects the full profile, and in fact 64-19-64-8.275 seems a little pessimistic, giving Diaz 90 more at-bats while reducing his runs and RBI. If he holds his per-at bat rates, he could exceed last year and easily turn a profit. Other shortstops to consider include Asdrubal Cabrera of the New York Mets and Marcus
Semien of the Oakland Athletics. Among outfielders, only Josh
Reddick of the Houston Astros projects as a legit all-rounder at 61-17-53-7-.266, and he even has upside left. But Reddick has had significant disabled list time in the past, and his struggles vs. lefthanded pitching could limit his opportunities if Houston platoons him with talented Teoscar Hernandez, who hung an .881 onbase-plus-slugging percentage on lefties in limited plate appearances last season.
Three other outfielders project to narrowly miss the all-rounder batting average cutoff — Tyler Naquin of the Indians; Max Kepler of the Minnesota Twins and Stephen Piscotty of the St. Louis Cardinals. All three have above-average power and speed, and they’re young enough (25-2426, respectively) that there’s upside in all the categories.
Also, Kepler and Piscotty have the plate skills that often support batting average improvement, while Naquin rarely walks and often whiffs, making him a batting average risk (and a playing time risk if Cleveland tires of his inability to reach base).
PITCHERS
Right-hander Vince Velasquez of the Philadelphia Phillies has genuine swing-and-miss stuff, striking out more than a batter per inning over the last two seasons. He also cut his walks last season to around three per game, addressing a serious flaw. He gave up too many home runs, in part because of bad luck. As he heads towards his prime, Velasquez could pay off — his 4.04-1.25-188 (ERA-WHIP-strikeouts) projection looks like more the floor than the ceiling. But he has shown problems with endurance.
Michael Pineda has been frustrating the New York Yankees and fantasy owners for a few years despite more than a strikeout per inning and barely two walks per game. Pineda could log a 3.30/1.15 (ERA/WHIP) with a bit more luck on batted balls, especially fly balls leaving the yard. Tyler Glasnow of the Pittsburgh Pirates struggled with command in a 231⁄ 3- inning bigleague audition, walking five batters per nine while striking out a little more than a batter per inning. But he has a 94-mph fastball and 48% ground-ball rate that limits home runs. Ordinarily, we might not recommend a guy this wild, but Pirates pitching coach Ray Searage turned mediocre starters such as J.A. Happ and Francisco Liriano into useful pitchers. Glasnow’s projection is 3.94-1.30-166, and even a modest improvement in walks could drop that ERA.
And finally, Aaron Nola of the Phillies was at 2.88/0.93 through May in 2016, then plummeted in June-July to 8.31/2.00. Nola ended his season on the disabled list with a flexor tendon injury. He told the news media this spring that his arm was 100%, and the club has scheduled him that way. Nola looks like a smart fantasy gamble — if he really is healthy, a sub-$10 or later-round investment could provide solid profit. The BaseballHQ.com projection, 3.71-1.23-162 in 160 innings, does not reflect the health uncertainty, but it also underplays the upside of last year’s April-May rates, including 170-plus strikeouts. Other pitchers to consider: Collin McHugh (Houston Astros), Jeff Samardzija (San Francisco Giants) and Jaime Garcia (Atlanta Braves).
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