Projected NL lineups,
Since we did American League teams last week, let’s take a look at some of the things fantasy owners should keep in mind about each National League team’s offense as we project their lineups.
Remember, the higher a player hits in the batting order, the greater his fantasy potential because of the additional plate appearances he’ll receive over the course of the season. Most estimates come out to around 10 atbats for every spot in the lineup.
ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS
CF A.J. Pollock RF David Peralta 1B Paul Goldschmidt 3B Jake Lamb LF Yasmany Tomas 2B Brandon Drury C Chris Hermann SS Chris Owings Goldschmidt remains the gold standard among fantasy first basemen with his combination of power (24 homers) and speed (32 steals). Even a small increase in his 29% fly-ball rate would get him back in the 30-homer range, but don’t expect as many steals.
Lamb broke out last season with a stellar first half in which he hit 20 homers and led the NL with a .612 slugging percentage. The second half was a different story as it was just .431.
Drury (16 homers, .458 slugging in 461 at-bats) has decent pop. In addition to qualifying at third base and outfield, he’s in line to add second base to his fantasy eligibility as the probable starter there.
ATLANTA BRAVES
CF Ender Inciarte SS Dansby Swanson 1B Freddie Freeman LF Matt Kemp RF Nick Markakis 2B Brandon Phillips 3B Adonis Garcia C Tyler Flowers Inciarte was slowed by a groin injury early in the season that kept his overall numbers down. Given full health — and something close to last year’s .351 onbase percentage (OBP) — and he’ll be a low-cost source of runs and steals. Freeman benefits considerably from the 15-foot difference between the right-center-field power alley at his old and new parks. Freeman, 27, hit a careerhigh 34 homers with a .969 onbase-plus-slugging percentage (OPS) in 2016. It came with a bit lower contact rate (72.5%), but it was definitely worth the trade-off.
Swanson, the No. 1 overall pick in 2015 by Arizona, rose quickly to the majors after starting the season at Class A. He hit .302/.361/ .442 (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage) in 129 at-bats, which should be more than enough to make him the everyday starter at age 23. Now, can he hit for power and/or steal enough bases to crack the top 15 fantasy shortstops?
CHICAGO CUBS
LF Kyle Schwarber 3B Kris Bryant 1B Anthony Rizzo 2B Ben Zobrist SS Addison Russell RF Jason Heyward C Willson Contreras CF Jon Jay The most interesting question about the Cubs lineup is how much time Schwarber will spend in left field. He’s a fantastic hitter with above-average power, but he hasn’t proved he can hit lefthanded pitching. Another question: How long will he stay in the leadoff spot?
Bryant (.292, 39 HR, 121 R, 102 RBI) will be a top-five overall pick in just about every draft. One of the keys to his success was a drop in strikeout rate from 31% to 22%. Outfield eligibility is a bonus.
Javier Baez cut his lofty strikeout rate but probably won’t play full time, so perhaps he falls far enough that fantasy owners can take advantage of his position flexibility (second base, third base, shortstop).
CINCINNATI REDS
CF Billy Hamilton 2B Jose Peraza 1B Joey Votto LF Adam Duvall RF Scott Schebler 3B Eugenio Suarez C Devin Mesoraco SS Zack Cozart Hamilton has no power but incredible speed. Still, can he get on base enough to be an effective leadoff man? Well ... from May 27 onward, he hit .276 with a .343 OBP. And it translated into 50 sto- len bases over his final 79 games.
Peraza frequently is compared to Hamilton because of a similar skill set, but Peraza (.324/.352/ .411 and 21 steals in 241 at-bats) is a better hitter. Votto posted a ridiculous .408/.490/.668 line with 15 homers and 55 RBI after the All-Star break.
COLORADO ROCKIES
CF Charlie Blackmon 2B DJ LeMahieu 3B Nolan Arenado RF Carlos Gonzalez 1B Ian Desmond LF David Dahl SS Trevor Story C Tony Wolters Mr. Consistency, Arenado led the NL with 41 homers and the majors with 133 RBI last season, just as he did in 2015 — only with better plate discipline. He’s a top-10, maybe even top-three, player in drafts this year. Dahl, 22, took advantage of a midseason call-up and fit right in. He hit .315/.359/.500 in 222 at-bats and has the tools to be a 20-homer, 20-steal player. But a high batting average on balls in play says temper expectations of him hitting above .300.
Story was an early-season sensation with seven home runs in his first six major league games. His numbers were impressive (.272, 27 homers, 72 RBI), especially considering he didn’t play after June 30 because of a torn ligament in his thumb. He should be fine for spring training.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS
2B Logan Forsythe SS Corey Seager 3B Justin Turner 1B Adrian Gonzalez C Yasmani Grandal CF Joc Pederson RF Yasiel Puig LF Andrew Toles Forsythe slugged a career-high 20 homers last season. He should thrive as perhaps the top candidate for the Dodgers’ leadoff spot.
In his first full MLB season, Seager performed like an MVP contender with 26 homers, 105 runs and a .512 slugging percentage. He’s a borderline firstround pick in mixed leagues.
Puig can be fantastic or he can be horrific. With a full season under his belt as manager, can Dave Roberts find a way to unleash the Wild Horse? It’s worth a late-round pick to find out.
MIAMI MARLINS
2B Dee Gordon 3B Martin Prado CF Christian Yelich RF Giancarlo Stanton LF Marcell Ozuna C J.T. Realmuto 1B Justin Bour SS Aideny Hechavarria Stanton, 27, possesses the greatest raw power of anyone in the game. But he has missed significant time throughout his career with a variety of injuries and last season hit a career-low .240.
With an elite contact rate and excellent speed, Yelich could wind up winning a batting title someday. Last season, he took a major step forward in the power department, posting career highs of 21 home runs and 98 RBI while maintaining a near-.300 average.
MILWAUKEE BREWERS
CF Keon Broxton 2B Jonathan Villar LF Ryan Braun 1B Eric Thames RF Domingo Santana 3B Travis Shaw SS Orlando Arcia C Andrew Susac Broxton, 26, fizzled in his first attempt to win the starting center-field job, but after reclaiming
the role July 26, he hit .294/.399/ .538 with eight homers and 16 steals over his final 46 games. Two reasons not to go all in on a breakout: a 36% strikeout rate and a .373 average on balls in play, which should decrease.
Villar moves to second base, which will give him a third position of fantasy eligibility (the others are third and shortstop). He stole a major league-leading 62 bases in 80 attempts and also hit 19 home runs. Villar shouldn’t last past the third round in mixed leagues.
Thames, 30, could be one of the most interesting players to watch this spring. He last played in the majors in 2012 but hit 40 home runs last season in South Korea, a year after putting up 47 homers and 40 steals.
NEW YORK METS
3B Jose Reyes SS Asdrubal Cabrera LF Yoenis Cespedes CF Curtis Granderson 2B Neil Walker RF Jay Bruce 1B Lucas Duda C Travis d’Arnaud Cespedes is a good bet for another 30-homer season. But his return preserves a logjam in the outfield that leaves promising youngster Michael Conforto on the outside. David Wright is dealing with yet another injury, this time to his shoulder. Reyes takes over and becomes the best candidate for the leadoff spot.
Duda is coming back from back issues that limited him to 47 games and seven home runs. When healthy, he’s a formidable slugger (57 home runs in 201415). 1B-3B Wilmer Flores crushed left-handers last season (.340/ .383/.710 with 11 HR in 100 atbats), so look for him to split time with Duda.
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES
2B Cesar Hernandez LF Howie Kendrick CF Odubel Herrera 3B Maikel Franco RF Michael Saunders 1B Tommy Joseph C Cameron Rupp SS Freddy Galvis Kendrick, 33, still makes excellent contact but doesn’t hit for much power. He’ll be a full-time outfielder but still qualify at second base for fantasy purposes. Still just 24 with excellent raw power, Franco seems a good bet to improve on his 25 homers and 88 RBI from 2016.
Saunders, 30, avoided injuries to play in a career-high 140 games last season, and his numbers (.253, 24 HR, 57 RBI, .816 OPS) were the best he has had as a major leaguer. Joseph is a popular sleeper pick after hitting 21 homers in 315 at-bats as a rookie.
PITTSBURGH PIRATES
2B Josh Harrison CF Starling Marte RF Andrew McCutchen LF Gregory Polanco 3B Jung Ho Kang 1B Josh Bell C Francisco Cervelli SS Jordy Mercer Marte hit .311 and stole 47 bases last season despite missing almost all of September with a back injury. After Marte served as the cleanup hitter for most of last season, the Pirates have hit him second frequently this spring
Polanco got off to a strong start but faded down the stretch as he had shoulder and knee ailments. But his career-high 22 home runs were an encouraging sign of developing power.
The opening-day lineup is in question with Bell recovering from arthroscopic knee surgery and Kang facing a possible suspension stemming from a suspended sentence for his arrest on charges of driving under the influence. David Freese should receive full-time at-bats at one cornerinfield spot with John Jaso a possibility as well.
SAN DIEGO PADRES
CF Manuel Margot LF Travis Jankowski 1B Wil Myers 3B Yangervis Solarte RF Hunter Renfroe 2B Ryan Schimpf C Austin Hedges SS Luis Sardinas Margot and Renfroe could be opening-day starters as rookies. Both were selected to the All-Star Futures Game last year. Renfroe, 24, had 30 homers and 105 RBI at hitter-friendly Class AAA El Paso. Margot, 21, is the speed merchant and hit .304 (with a .351 OBP) at El Paso with 98 runs and 30 stolen bases.
No major leaguer had 30 homers and 30 steals last season, but the three players who came closest were Mike Trout, Mookie Betts and Myers. Myers, 26, posted career highs in runs (99), home runs (28), RBI (94) and stolen bases (28). The question is: Will he have enough help on offense to make a difference for fantasy owners?
Schimpf, 28, was an unexpected find last season, hitting 20 home runs in 89 games after he was promoted from the minors. He’ll have to compete with speedy Cory Spangenberg, who missed almost all of last season with a quadriceps muscle injury.
SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS
CF Denard Span 1B Brandon Belt C Buster Posey RF Hunter Pence SS Brandon Crawford 3B Eduardo Nunez 2B Joe Panik LF Jarrett Parker The 2012 NL MVP, Posey had a down year by his standards, hitting .288 with 14 homers and 80 RBI. While he maintained an outstanding contact rate, his average on balls in play was a career-low .309 — even though he had a career-high hard contact rate (36%). More evidence why he should be the first catcher drafted.
Belt hit 17 home runs but only six at home. But just a slight uptick in his 9.3% home run/fly-ball rate could alter those numbers dramatically. He hits the ball solidly and has a tremendous eye (104 walks, .394 OBP). A breakout at age 29 wouldn’t be a total shock.
Nunez had a career year (.288, 16 HR, 40 SB) at age 29 while getting full-time at-bats for the first time in the majors. He continued to run, even after he was traded to the Giants, so expect that trend to continue. But it might be hard for him to match his other numbers from 2016.
ST. LOUIS CARDINALS
CF Dexter Fowler SS Aledmys Diaz 1B Matt Carpenter RF Stephen Piscotty C Yadier Molina CF Randal Grichuk 2B Kolten Wong 3B Jhonny Peralta Fowler gives the Cards a true leadoff man they didn’t have a year ago. He is coming off a ca- reer-high .393 OBP, and his .366 career mark should help keep the offense humming along.
Because of missed time with an injury to his side, Carpenter didn’t quite match his 28 home runs from 2015, but he did post the same .505 slugging percentage. Now 31, he has morphed from a slap-hitting leadoff man to a complete No. 3 hitter. Eligible at three positions (first, second and third base), he’ll play mostly first this season.
Piscotty showed glimpses of a breakout season with decent power (22 homers) to lead the team with 86 runs. Throw in a solid .343 OBP, and he’ll hit in the middle of the order.
Wong will get the opportunity to be the everyday second baseman after being moved to the outfield at one point last season. He was hampered by shoulder problems. If he struggles again, 30-homer-hitter Jedd Gyorko is waiting in the wings.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS
CF Adam Eaton SS Trea Turner 2B Daniel Murphy RF Bryce Harper 3B Anthony Rendon LF Jayson Werth C Matt Wieters 1B Ryan Zimmerman Turner moves back to his natural position this season, adding shortstop eligibility to second base and the outfield. But even more than his versatility, Turner is a huge fantasy asset because of his speed. He stole 33 bases in 73 games after being promoted from the minors.
Eaton gives the Nationals another tablesetter with Turner at the top of the order. He has scored at least 90 runs in each of the past two seasons.
After a torrid April, Harper never really seemed 100%, finishing with a .243 batting average and 24 home runs (but still maintaining an excellent .373 OBP). The season wasn’t a total loss, however, thanks to his 21 steals.
Wieters will share time with Derek Norris behind the plate. Both should be positive contributors in NL-only formats, but the time-share kills their values in mixed leagues. Zimmerman might no longer be an everyday option at first, which is why the Nationals added lefty-killer Adam Lind.