NCAA predictions,
Among predictions: No. 10 seed will knock Kentucky from tourney
Expect the unexpected. It sounds cliché, but it also rings true during March Madness. Hardly any expert or diehard fan expected 15th-seeded Middle Tennessee State to beat Michigan State in the first round last year.
There is a statistical way to make excellent picks, sure. But that’s just plain boring. The only way to hit a home run is to swing for the fences, and with that in mind, here are some wildly bold projections: Wichita State will upset Kentucky in second round: The NCAA selection committee really likes coincidences, which it seemingly cooked up with a potential second-round matchup between Wichita State — should it get past seventh-seeded Dayton — and No. 2 seed Kentucky — should it dispatch Northern Kentucky. The Shockers, who ousted Arizona last year and Kansas the year before, perhaps were the most egregiously underseeded team in the bracket at No. 10.
On paper, there’s no arguing Kentucky is a much better team, with elite freshmen Malik Monk, De’Aaron Fox and Bam Adebayo, who combined for nearly 50 points a game.
But the Shockers will have payback from 2014 (a loss to Kentucky ending their undefeated season) as their motivation. If you think coach Gregg Marshall doesn’t hold grudges, think again. This team plays with a signature brand of toughness and ranks in the top five nationally in field goal percentage defense. It plays with the same grit that got the program to the Final Four in 2013.
That Middle Tennessee State team everyone loves won’t be a Cinderella: Middle Tennessee is no Cinderella. It was last year as a No. 15 seed, pulling perhaps the biggest upset ever by knocking off Michigan State. But this year the Blue Raiders (30-4) were deserving of an at-large bid and even a No. 10 or No. 11 seed. That’s why Kermit Davis’ team certainly can beat Minnesota, which lost one of its top players, starter Akeem Springs. But MTSU won’t be a surprise for Big Ten coach of the year Richard Pitino, who will have his team ready to silence the tourney’s most likely bracket buster.
The X factor is Minnesota’s Reggie Lynch, who is prone to foul trouble. But when he’s in the game, he makes scoring in the paint impossible as Minnesota leads the country in blocked shots. Giddy Potts, who had 30 points in the Blue Raiders’ Conference USA tournament final against Marshall, will be contained by Minnesota’s guards on defense. MTSU’s best player, JaCorey Williams, won’t be able to take over against the Gophers’ frontcourt. No. 11 seed Rhode Island
will go to the Sweet 16: One of the benefits of playing with your backs against the wall is that mentality carries over into the NCAA tournament. That’s what coach Dan Hurley’s team will bring to the table — a killer edge that helped it win the Atlantic 10 tournament. The Rams are healthy, on an eight-game winning streak and hitting their stride at the right time.
They have explosive offensive weapons in E.C. Matthews and Hassan Martin, but it’s on defense where the Rams turned it up in the last month, rising to No. 32 in the country in KenPom defensive efficiency. They also have a nice pathway to get to the Sweet 16 because of key injuries to teams in their region. No. 6 seed Creighton lost starting point guard Maurice Watson Jr. to a knee injury in the middle of the season, and Oregon lost one of its best players in versatile forward Chris Boucher, who tore an anterior cruciate ligament in the Pac-12 tournament.
Seventh-seeded Michigan will help Kansas underachieve again: That team that finally finds its rhythm and identity just in the nick of time often is the most dangerous team. That’s Michigan this year. The Big Ten tournament champion is a No. 7 seed, but the Wolverines are playing No. 2 seed-level basketball. John Beilein’s team is 5-0 since a last-second loss to Northwestern. The Wolverines’ anchor is point guard Derrick Walton Jr. (15.2 ppg, 4.7 apg), who can take over games and can help carry Michigan past a tough Oklahoma State team in the first round and an inconsistent Louisville squad in the second round. If and when Michigan faces Kansas in the Elite Eight, assuming Michigan State or another underdog doesn’t knock the Jayhawks off, Michigan will be the team that stops Kansas from getting to Phoenix.
Kansas has won 13 consecutive Big 12 regular-season titles, but the postseason is a much different story. The Jayhawks were the top overall seed in last year’s tournament, had won 17 games in a row as the favorite to win the national championship before losing to eventual national champion Villanova. In the last eight years, the Jayhawks have been a No. 1, No. 2, No. 2, No. 1, No. 2, No. 1, No. 1 and No. 3 seed in the NCAA tournament. And they turned those great regular-season résumés into only one Final Four run. Gonzaga will go to the Final Four: Is it really bold to pick a No. 1 seed to reach the Final Four? It is when it’s Gonzaga, which is in its 19th consecutive tournament but has no Final Four appearances. The Bulldogs were a top seed in 2013 but were ousted by ninth-seeded Wichita State in the second round.
Now a powerful midmajor, Gonzaga, under coach Mark Few, is capable of making the Final Four behind do-everything guard Nigel Williams- Goss (16.9 ppg, 5.7 rpg, 4.8 apg) and now-healthy big man Przemek Karnowski (12.6 ppg, 6.0 rpg). The Bulldogs (32-1) were the fourth No. 1 seed, which means their side of the bracket poses a tougher path, but a second-round game against Northwestern, a third-round game against, potentially, Notre Dame or West Virginia and an Elite Eight matchup likely against Arizona are all winnable. Bracketologists picked Gonzaga’s résumé apart for playing in the lowly West Coast. Now the path is open for the Bulldogs to silence doubters. Neither Duke nor Villanova
will cut down nets: Las Vegas oddsmakers like Duke or North Carolina to win it all, and defending champion Villanova is the top overall seed for a reason. Villanova and Duke are red hot, coming off tournament titles, and they are in the stacked East Region, it’s difficult to argue with the logic that whoever comes out of this region wins the whole thing.
How will they lose, whether that’s to Florida, Southern Methodist or Baylor in the East or to a top-tier team in the Final Four? Because it’s win-or-go-home in the tournament. Coach Jay Wright can speak to the rigors of this cruel side of March. Before last season his team struggled to get past the second round, losing to No. 8 seed North Carolina State as a No. 1 seed in 2015. And Mike Krzyzewski knows it to be true, too, given that some of his best teams didn’t end up winning the national title. Though these two teams are very likely the best in college basketball right now, there is a long way to go to the title.