Arizona primed
Best Round of 64 matchup: Maryland vs. Xavier. Though Maryland earned a No. 6 seed and Xavier sneaked into the field as an 11, only wrapping up a bid with a win against Butler in the Big East tournament, the Musketeers are actually five spots higher in the Ken Pomeroy efficiency rankings at No. 40. Xavier had an awful February, losing six in a row at one point shortly after point guard Edmond Sumner tore his anterior cruciate ligament. It took time for the Musketeers to readjust, but this is still a good, experienced core with Trevon Bluiett and J.P. Macura, and Chris Mack is a proven NCAA tournament coach. Maryland has been mediocre on the defensive end this season, and at times it asks too much of point guard Melo Trimble, who averaged 17 points this season. As a result, the Terrapins stumbled down the stretch, losing six of their last 10 after a 20-2 start.
Potential upset: Dunk City is back in the field, and don’t be surprised if Florida Gulf Coast does it again, drawing a beatable No. 3 seed in Florida State. Though the Seminoles have a deep bench and a wealth of potential NBA talent, this is a young team that laid some absolute eggs this year away from home. While it’s tempting to pick Florida State for a deep run because of its combination of athleticism and high-end skill such as in swingman Dwayne Bacon (16.9 ppg), coach Leonard Hamilton has made the Sweet 16 just twice in seven appearances.
The sleeper: Until the last week of the regular season, it didn’t seem like Van--- derbilt could make up enough ground to even get in the field. But the Commodores closed strong, winning eight of their final 11 games to secure their place in history as the first 15-loss team to get an at-large bid. The Commodores are a scary matchup because of their long-distance shooting, which ranks 15th nationally in threes made per game (9.9) and 59th in accuracy (37.7%). Vanderbilt’s 7-1 center, Luke Kornet, will bring opposing big men out to the perimeter because he attempts 4.6 threes per game, opening the floor for a group of guards who are solid off the bounce in Matthew Fisher-Davis and Riley LaChance. Vanderbilt went 3-0 against Florida and had a pair of close losses to Kentucky, which suggests it won’t be an easy out for Gonzaga in a potential Round of 32 matchup. If the Commodores stay hot from the three-point line, they could be the West’s bracket-buster.
The winner: If the West goes according to form, the regional final will pit arguably the two best coaches in the sport who have yet to reach a Final Four in Gonzaga’s Mark Few and Arizona’s Sean Miller. While Gonzaga beat Arizona head-to-head back on Dec. 3 69-62, look for the Wildcats to turn the tables this time and return to the Final Four for the first time since 2001. A lot has changed for Arizona since December, namely getting sophomore guard Allonzo Trier back Jan. 21 after he missed Arizona’s first 19 games. Arizona is one of the most complete teams in the field with depth, athleticism on the wings and a highly skilled big man in 7-foot Finnish freshman Lauri Markkanen, who shoots 43% from the three-point line. After a pair of heartbreaking Elite Eight losses against Wisconsin in 2014 and 2015, it feels like everything is coming together for Arizona this time and will deliver Miller a longoverdue chance at the title.