Beware of Butler
Best Round of 64 matchup: Dayton-Wichita State. Wichita State is one of the most under-seeded teams in the bracket. Only Gonzaga, the No. 1 seed in the West Region, has a greater average scoring margin in Division I this season. The Shockers also have the fifth-greatest rebounding margin.
Dayton won the Atlantic 10 regular season and has a strong recent track record in the tournament, having made the last three tournament fields and compiled a 5-3 record. Outside of their league this season, the Flyers beat tournament teams Vanderbilt, Winthrop and East Tennessee State while falling to Northwestern and Saint Mary’s.
As potent as Wichita State has been, it is 0-3 against teams in this season’s bracket. Potential upset: UNC-Wilmington and Nevada, the 12 seeds in the East and Midwest, will be penciled in to advance on plenty of brackets, but no 12 seed is going to be a bigger darling than Middle Tennessee. The Blue Raiders have six players who helped them beat No. 2 seed Michigan State in last season’s tournament, not including this season’s leading scorer, JaCorey Williams.
Middle Tennessee is one of five 30-win teams in Division I and is 5-0 on neutral courts. Minnesota has played the nation’s 17th-toughest schedule, according to the NCAA’s measurement. But in Middle Tennessee, it is facing a team that allows 63.1 points per game, the 20th-best mark in Division I and the same total as No. 1 overall seed Villanova.
The sleeper: Butler. The Bulldogs are an unusual tournament team in that they enter the event on a two-game losing streak. Disregard that.
Chris Holtmann is doing one of the four best coaching jobs in college men’s basketball this season, and the Bulldogs are 14-4 against teams in the bracket. They handed defending champion Villanova two of its three losses and have wins against West No. 2 seed Arizona and South No. 6 seed Cincinnati. Watch out for this team.
The winner: UCLA. The Bruins were criticized for their non-conference schedule, and only four at-large teams in the tournament have a weaker strength-of-schedule rating, according to Kenpom.com.
But the Bruins have other numbers that are unmatched by any team in Division I. They score 1.202 points per possession and have an effective field goal percentage — a shooting accuracy measure that adjusts for the value of three-point field goals — of 60.4. They also have a team assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.90. All those marks are the best in the nation.
UCLA has a tough draw in the bottom half of the South bracket, particularly with Kentucky, Cincinnati, Wake Forest and Wichita State lurking. It also has the best player in the region in guard Lonzo Ball, and his surrounding talent can match that of top seed North Carolina or No. 2 seed Kentucky. UCLA proved that Dec. 3 when it beat the Wildcats on their home floor.