Don’t be blinded by Tuffy winner Soto
It’s best to say no to White Sox backup catcher
The opening week of the baseball season makes fantasy owners giddy because they finally get to see numbers that count and standings that are real.
But almost as often, there’s disappointment and concern about players who start slowly or get injured.
Paid more than you wanted for Gary Sanchez? Enjoy looking at that .150 average and one home run for the next 10 days while he’s on the disabled list.
Still waiting for Kris Bryant’s first home run? Or Miguel Cabrera’s first hit? As of Sunday, you were with Bryant off to a 4-for-22 start and Cabrera beginning the season hitless in his first 12 at-bats.
Thankfully, we’ve come a long way in our fantasy knowledge and no longer are impulsively cutting players who just happen to struggle early. (Right, Byron Buxton owners?)
The more difficult roster management issue after the first week is determining which hot-starting players are worth adding.
Rookie left-handers Kyle Freeland of the Colorado Rockies and Amir Garrett of the Cincinnati Reds, both first-round draft picks, were among the last players to make their respective teams this spring. But both had stellar outings in their major league debuts.
Freeland, 23, limited the Los Angeles Dodgers to four hits and one run in six innings (at Coors Field, no less), and Garrett, 24, blanked the St. Louis Cardinals on two hits over six innings in his MLB debut.
We have no idea how these two will develop, especially pitching half their games in extremely hitter-friendly ballparks. However, the cost of ownership is rela- tively low, so any investment isn’t likely to break the bank.
On the other hand, fantasy owners who find themselves at the bottom of their league standings after the first week often are willing to go all-out to add anyone or everyone available to give their team an instant boost.
(Believe me, I know the feeling. My J.D. Martinez-less AL LABR team is so buried at the bottom that I need a stepladder to even see who’s in 11th place — and maybe the Hubble Telescope to locate Baseball HQ’s Dave Adler in first.)
That’s where we run into trouble. There’s no quick fix.
Remember opening day in 1994, when little-known Chicago Cubs outfielder Karl “Tuffy” Rhodes hit three home runs off Dwight Gooden and created a firestorm in fantasy leagues as owners rushed to the waiver wire to pick him up?
Those who were lucky enough to roster Rhodes were then rewarded with a grand total of five home runs and a .234 average the rest of the season.
So it’s with a mixture of caution and controlled optimism that we present our traditional review of the biggest statistical outliers of baseball’s opening week … the annual Tuffy Awards.
THE NON-TUFFYS
Before we get to the players who have the best chance of carrying
on the Tuffy tradition, let’s first examine a couple players who might look like flukes, but aren’t. OF Mitch Haniger, Seattle Mariners. At first glance, there’s nothing overly spectacular with Haniger’s numbers: .214, 2 HR, 4 RBI. But he is hitting second every day in the Mariners lineup, and he scored eight runs in his first seven games.
There’s upside in both power and speed (double-digit steals in the minors each of the past two seasons). And with regular playing time in an aggressive offense, Haniger has breakout potential. SP Brandon Finnegan,
Reds. In his first start, Finnegan allowed one hit and one walk through seven shutout innings, striking out nine and retiring the last 19 batters he faced. It was impressive, even if it did come against the Philadelphia Phillies.
However, Finnegan was pretty solid over the second half last season, posting a 2.93 ERA in 13 starts and striking out more than a batter per inning. He’s worth a closer look and should be at least a streaming option in mixed leagues.
THE FINALISTS
1B Mark Reynolds and OF Gerardo Parra, Colorado
Rockies. Any hitter who plays home games at Coors Field is worthy of consideration in fantasy circles. Reynolds (.346, 3 HR, 8 RBI) and Parra (.440, HR, 6 RBI)
are both off to storybook starts.
But both players will turn into pumpkins in a few more weeks when both Ian Desmond and David Dahl return from the disabled list. While the production from Reynolds and Parra provides an immediate boost, they won’t be nearly as valuable to fantasy owners when they’re not in the lineup every day. SP Kendall Graveman,
Oakland Athletics. By default or by seniority, Graveman was tabbed as the A’s opening day starter, even though a career 16-20 record and 4.08 ERA didn’t exactly scream “ace.”
However, with two starts in the books in 2017, things look a lot different. Graveman is 2-0 with a 2.08 ERA after taking a no-hitter into the seventh inning of his most recent outing. Even more encouraging, the low-strikeout righty (5.6 career K/9 rate) is striking out more batters — 12 in his first 13 innings — by throwing his sinker almost exclusively.
But it’s hard to see those trends continuing all season. Home runs can be a killer for Graveman, and he has allowed one in each of his starts. Plus, he has been extremely fortunate so far with a .196 average on balls in play. SP Clayton Richard, San
Diego Padres. After spending much of the last two seasons in the Cubs bullpen, Richard seemed to thrive in his return to the rotation — and to San Diego.
He tossed eight shutout innings at Dodger Stadium in his first start. But as we saw with Freeland’s electric debut, the Dodgers seem to have trouble with lefthanded pitchers. He came back to earth in his second outing, allowing five runs in six innings.
Don’t read too much into Richard’s early-season success. The 33-year-old has a career 4.19 ERA and 1.41 WHIP (walks plus hits allowed per inning pitched).
THE 2017 TUFFY GOES TO …
C Geovany Soto, Chicago
White Sox. Catcher can be a terribly difficult position for fantasy owners to fill. Outside the top-tier ones, the rest are all pretty much the same. So whenever someone distances himself from that nondescript pack, a feeding frenzy tends to result.
Derek Norris’ arrival in American League-only leagues after the Tampa Bay Rays acquired him just before opening day is one example. Half of the teams in AL LABR tried to pick up Norris in the first waiver period, and he ended up costing the winning bidder one-third of his free agent budget for the whole season.
Jason Castro’s five RBI and .550 on-base percentage in his first five games with the Minnesota Twins made him another flashy target.
But the splash Soto made to start the season with three hits — all home runs — in his first 10 at-bats created quite the firestorm.
Never mind Soto is still the backup in Chicago to youngster Omar Narvaez. Or that he hasn’t played in as many as 100 games in a season since 2011. Or that he’s generally only effective vs. lefthanded pitchers. Or that he’s 34.
Fantasy owners can be blinded by the fact that a catcher who was likely available on the waiver wire finished the first week of the 2017 season as one of the top home run hitters in the majors.
Like Tuffy Rhodes, this early fantasy star from Chicago can be hard to resist. But resist, we must. Say no to Soto in Roto.