IT’S TIME TO CASH IN ON HOT STARTS
There have been hitters this season who have swung hot bats, and pitchers who have started off mowing down opponents. But as we approach the midpoint of the season, other players have yet to thaw.
Astute fantasy managers know to look past the surface statistics to see what is driving a player’s performance. Is it a new approach, more velocity or just plain luck?
Now is the time to cash in on any unsustainably poor starts for players who are likely to pick things up in the second half. While it might feel counterintuitive to trade highly rated players who have overperformed, shrewd managers can turn a hefty profit by targeting players who got out of the gate slowly.
Here are a few one-for-one trade ideas that match players from the same position. Use it as a primer as you seek to make your own trades to bolster your roster.
SECOND BASE
Starlin Castro (New York Yankees) for Matt Carpenter (St. Louis Cardinals)
Castro is on pace to shatter his career highs in home runs, runs and RBI. Unfortunately, a peek under the hood reveals Castro isn’t doing anything much different: He’s walking at his normal rate and hitting the ball on the ground just as often as he always has. The veteran shortstop also has stopped stealing bases altogether.
His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is a fairly lucky .362, and a far greater percentage of his fly balls are heading over the fence than ever before. With the pace of both of those likely to diminish over the balance of the season, Castro’s production has nowhere to go but down.
Meanwhile, Carpenter is batting .246 and sacrificing contact for power. However, his 15% walk rate is intact, he’s hitting the ball with authority and his power metrics are at career highs.
His batting average might not sniff .250 this year, but he has been hampered by an unfortunate .268 BABIP and has a chance to get back to 25-plus home runs with additional eligibility at first and third base in most league formats.
SHORTSTOP
Zack Cozart (Cincinnati Reds) for Trevor Story (Colorado Rockies)
Fueled by a .367 BABIP, Cozart has sprinted out of the blocks with nine home runs, two stolen bases and a .320/.404/.562 slash line (batting average/on-base percentage/slugging percentage). His walk rate has nearly doubled and his slugging percentage is nearly 150 points higher than his career norm. Expect him to return to earth, as there is nothing in his batted ball profile that suggests he’s anything more than a 15-homer bat.
On the other hand, Story has not been able to follow up on his 27-homer, injury-shortened 2016, managing nine homers this season. His contact woes will keep his batting average low, but he hits a ton of fly balls, has aboveaverage to elite power with aboveaverage speed and is walking nearly 30% more than he did a year ago. There’s a good chance he will outmuscle Cozart the rest of the way, as he plays half of his games at Coors Field and hits in a loaded Colorado lineup.
THIRD BASE
Marwin Gonzalez (Houston Astros) for Kyle Seager (Seattle Mariners)
After hitting a career-high 13 home runs in 484 at-bats in 2016, Gonzalez has mashed 12 in only 164 at-bats this year. He also has chipped in a few stolen bases and tripled his walk rate to go along with a hearty .311/.403/.585 slash line.
While the batting average is mostly for real, don’t expect him to keep up the home run barrage. Much like Castro, Gonzalez’s rate of fly balls that end up as home runs has been very favorable in 2017 when compared to his history. Gonzalez continues to hit almost half of his batted balls into the ground, and that will limit how many reach the bleachers going forward.
Seager has been one of the most consistent hitters at the hot corner since he started playing full time in 2012, and he peaked with 30 home runs last season. However, his power has yet to manifest itself in 2017, though his skills remain largely intact.
His track record and solid hitting metrics are enough to convince us that his second half is going to be more power-laden than this first. Seager should outearn Gonzalez for the rest of the year.
OUTFIELD
Eric Thames (Milwaukee Brewers) for Gregory Polanco (Pittsburgh Pirates)
Thames has been the feel-good story of the first half, returning from Korea to swat 20 home runs in 219 at-bats. He’s second among qualified hitters in walk rate (17%), and his power is no fluke.
As major league pitchers begin to adjust, however, it’s difficult to see Thames maintaining his current pace. In fact, after a blistering 11-home run April, he has managed to hit just nine home runs since, with an anemic .207 batting average in June. The window to trade him for a valuable asset is closing.
Polanco has spent time on the disabled list with hamstring issues, and after hitting 22 home runs in 2016, had managed only four this season.
Surprisingly, he has made significantly better contact but has had problems getting the ball in the air. He has been unable to capitalize on a productive May (.310, three homers, two steals), and was hitting .161 in June. If Polanco can get back to 100% health, he is sure to turn around his season. A good mix of power and speed could await in the second half.
STARTING PITCHER
Ervin Santana (Minnesota Twins) for Jacob deGrom (New York Mets)
Santana has been one of the best pitchers of the first half, posting eight wins and a 2.56 ERA. Or has he?
In reality, he has enjoyed more than his share of good fortune. The veteran right-hander has held batters to a .171 BABIP, which is not sustainable (year over year, pitchers regress to a BABIP of right around .300). His strikeouts and velocity are down, while his home run and walk rates are up. There’s nothing here but fool’s gold. It might almost be too late to test the trade market.
On the flip side, deGrom was sporting a 3.94 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. There is reason for optimism here, as he’s striking out 20% more batters than last year and showing increased velocity. Unfortunately, this has come with more walks and home runs as well. It’s a good bet that both of these marks will regress closer to his career marks. Now’s the time to get him before his value skyrockets.
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