❚ The potential next members of Club 3,000,
Albert Pujols became the 32nd member of the 3,000-hit club when the Los Angeles Angels first baseman reached the milestone last week against with a single against the Seattle Mariners.
It’s the fourth consecutive season we’ve seen a player reach the milestone. Then-New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez pulled it off in 2015. Then-Miami Marlins outfielder Ichiro Suzuki did it in 2016. And Texas Rangers third baseman Adrian Beltre followed Suzuki in 2017. So who’s next in line? The only sure thing is this wait will be longer.
Entering the week, Detroit Tigers slugger Miguel Cabrera was 334 hits shy of 3,000; assuming Cabrera stays relatively healthy — he was placed on the disabled list May 4 with a hamstring strain — he should cross the 3,000-hit plateau during the 2020 season, shortly after his 37th birthday.
Robinson Cano of the Seattle Mariners, also 35, had 2,410 hits and, given that he’s signed through 2023, is also a virtual shoo-in.
After those two, it could be a few seasons before we see it accomplished again.
By using a formula created by Bill James called “The Favorite Toy,” we can predict the likelihood and chances, barring any serious injury, of a player who can reach a certain bench mark. This particular formula uses a player’s age and recent performance history to predict the chances.
Here’s a recent look at potential new members of the 3,000hit club: (minimum of 1,000 hits):
Miguel Cabrera, Tigers
❚ Age: 35
❚ Hits: 2,666
❚ Rank among active players: 4
❚ Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 80%
Jose Altuve, Houston Astros
❚ Age: 28
❚ Hits: 1,296
❚ Rank among active players: 49
❚ Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 45%
Robinson Cano, Seattle Mariners
❚ Age: 35
❚ Hits: 2,408
❚ Rank among active players: 5
❚ Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 40%
Elvis Andrus, Texas Rangers
❚ Age: 29
❚ Hits: 1,474
❚ Rank among active players: 31
❚ Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 24.5%
Eric Hosmer, San Diego Padres
❚ Age: 28
❚ Hits: 1,167
❚ Rank among active players: 58
❚ Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 20%
Nick Markakis, Atlanta Braves
❚ Age: 34
❚ Hits: 2,097
❚ Rank among active players: 7
❚ Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 16%
Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels
❚ Age: 26
❚ Hits: 1,082
❚ Rank among active players: 67
❚ Chance of getting to 3,000 hits: 14%
For players in their 20s, Houston Astros second baseman Jose Altuve is the most likely to get to 3,000 hits.
Miguel Cabrera is less than 400 hits away from 3,000.
Robinson Cano is closing in on 3,000 hits.