Colts (10-6) at Texans (11-5)
Saturday, 4:35 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: ESPN/ABC
Danny Sheridan’s line: TBA Colts’ keys to victory: In two games versus Houston, WR T.Y. Hilton collected 13 passes for 314 yards. They had no answer, and QB Andrew Luck should seek him early. Rookie LB Darius Leonard has been playing at an elite level and will need to snuff out run plays. The pass rush generated 12 total sacks in the season series and was a key reason both games were decided by a total of three points. If DEs Denico Autry, Jabaal Sheard and Margus Hunt can find ways to affect the passer, it compromises their big-play offense.
Texans’ keys to victory: In the final 10 games of the season, QB Deshaun Watson threw two interceptions by allowing the game to come to him and allowing lesser quarterbacks to make mistakes against his defense. That won’t be the case in the playoffs, and Watson must generate success immediately. DE J.J. Watt and DE-OLB Jadeveon Clowney will need to duplicate their Week 4 effort when they combined for four sacks, two forced fumbles and a fumble recovered for a touchdown. WR DeAndre Hopkins will be the focus of the passing game, but WRs DeAndre Carter, Keke Coutee and Vyncint Smith have to help carry Hopkins’ burden.
Matchup to watch: Colts WR T.Y. Hilton vs. the Texans’ secondary. Hilton has recorded a 100yard receiving game in four of his last five games against Houston.
Who wins? Indianapolis is hot while the Texans hobbled into the postseason. It’s admirable that Houston overcame a 0-3 start and won the AFC South title, but its offensive line is too compromised.
Colts, 27-20