McVay, Belichick formulating X’s and O’s
Super Bowl questions: Will the Rams play man against Brady? Can the Patriots contain Aaron Donald?
Super Bowl LIII is giving us one of the most intriguing X’s and O’s matchups in NFL history. On one side, you have Patriots coach Bill Belichick, the greatest defensive mind ever. On the other, you have Rams coach Sean McVay, the league’s newest offensive genius. The battle between New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels and Los Angeles defensive coordinator Wade Phillips is a worthy undercard.
Let’s take a look at the strategic questions that will decide which team lifts the Lombardi Trophy.
How will Belichick match the Rams’ favorite personnel grouping?
In the NFC Championship Game against the Saints, the Rams proved they can put up points when their running game isn’t operating at a high level, but there’s no denying McVay’s offense is at its best when Todd Gurley (and C.J. Anderson) get going. So if Belichick takes his typical “take away what the opponent does best” approach to Super Bowl LIII, the Patriots’ defense will be loading up the box to stop the run.
Doing so can be difficult against the Rams because they are so proficient at running out of three-receiver sets, which they employ on a whopping 96 percent of their snaps. The Pats could play base defense, but that would leave them with poor matchups in the passing game. They could match the Rams by playing nickel, but LA’s receivers are willing and capable blockers and would have an advantage against a defensive lineup featuring five defensive backs.
Don’t be surprised if Belichick goes with a base-nickel hybrid, where he keeps his front seven (whether it’s four linemen and three linebackers or vice versa) out on the field but replaces a safety with a third cornerback.
This tactic would allow the Patriots to have more size and strength in the box while still being able to match up with the Rams’ receivers.
Belichick used the strategy in a 2013 game against Carolina and continued to experiment with it in 2014. Dusting it off for the final game of the season could send McVay and his coaching staff scrambling for answers.
Will the Rams play man against Brady?
The Rams have favored zone over man coverage throughout the 2018 season, but the blueprint for slowing down Tom Brady has always been to play man across the board.
The Chargers, for whatever reason, thought they could get away showing Brady static zone looks, and their defense was dissected in the divisional round. The Chiefs, who do not have the defensive talent level of the Chargers, played mostly man and had more success in the AFC Championship Game.
The Rams should play more man against the Patriots, who don’t have the receivers to threaten them downfield. The question is, can they? When Los Angeles tried to man up against the Saints, New Orleans head coach Sean Payton was able to dial up plays to create mismatches for running back Alvin Kamara. In James White, McDaniels will have a similar chess piece he can use to exploit matchups against the Rams’ linebackers.
If Wade Phillips elects to play man coverage, it will be interesting to see how he matches up with the Patriots’ receivers. While coaching in Denver, he used Aqib Talib on Rob Gronkowski at times.
We could see that again in Super Bowl LIII. With Talib on Gronk, Marcus Peters would likely take Chris Hogan with Nickell Robey-Coleman taking Julian Edelman.
On paper, those matchups look good for the Rams.
What’s the Patriots’ plan for Donald?
No team has been able to block Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald this season, but if there’s any offensive line coach who can devise a plan to slow the NFL’s best defensive player, it’s Dante Scarnecchia. He’ll need a good one if Brady is going to have time and space in the pocket.
The Pats will certainly throw some double teams at Donald, but the key to slowing him down might be to use his quickness off the line against him. Doing that will start in the run game. Early
on, New England will throw draws and traps at Donald in an effort to keep him from bursting upfield before working in some play-action designs that play off those run actions. Screen passes, which have been a big part of New England’s offense this season, will also keep Donald guessing.
If Donald’s thinking and not reacting, the Patriots should have an easier time blocking him. He’s still going to make his plays, but if they can just prevent those game-changing plays Donald has made so often this season, Scarnecchia and the New England offensive line will have done its job.
How will McVay use Gurley?
Maybe the question should be “Will Sean McVay use Todd Gurley?” after the Rams’ star was relegated to a secondary role in the NFC title game. McVay claimed the “flow of the game” led him to play C.J. Anderson more snaps than the NFL’s highest-paid running back, and you better believe Belichick is trying to figure how to replicate the “flow” of that game to limit Gurley’s snaps.
Belichick might be able to do that by loading up against the Rams’ outside zone runs by using certain fronts. Playing that base-nickel hybrid we mentioned earlier would help secure the edges and stop those outside runs. which should persuade McVay to call more inside runs for Anderson.
Gurley is much more than a runner, so McVay would be smart to craft a game plan that features him in the passing game regardless of his success on the ground. The Patriots have had a hard time covering backs, mostly due to a lack of athleticism at the second level. New England gave up 49.1 receiving yards per game to backs this season, which ranked 22nd in the league per Football Outsiders. Even if Gurley can’t get going on the ground, he still has plenty to offer as a receiver. Especially against this defense.