Do big deals pan out?
MLB teams live in fear of the “albatross” contract. We look at history’s top 11 free agent deals.
Although it seemed this winter as though Manny Machado and Bryce Harper would not get their huge paydays, the ice was broken last week.
Machado agreed to a 10-year, $300 million deal, the largest for a free agent in baseball history. At press time, Harper was probably not far behind, finally in the pole position as the Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago White Sox and anyone else vie for the final 26year-old potential Hall of Famer on the market.
The delay was almost certainly the result of many clubs viewing these long-term commitments as a poison pill, a big deal sure to go bad that will create a domino effect of misery and non-contention.
Yet for all of the hand-wringing over suboptimal pacts such as Albert Pujols’ 10-year run with the Los Angeles Angels, history tells us two things:
❚ Mega-contracts buoy onfield prosperity.
❚ And few deals are too big to dump.
Of the top 20 biggest contracts in history (including extensions), seven of the 20 players have won World Series under those deals; nine of 20 have appeared in the World Series; and 16 of 20 have appeared in the playoffs (with two of the four misses still on current contracts).
Remarkably, 10 of those 20 deals were signed in 2013 or earlier, when MLB revenue surpassed $8 billion. They have now topped $10 billion, but the culture of hyper-efficiency has doused the market for veterans a second consecutive winter.
Yet no situation is truly permanent.
Worried about flexibility? Well, consider that the Miami Marlins got out from under the biggest contract of all time — Giancarlo Stanton’s 13-year, $325 million extension — after just three seasons, even though Stanton had a no-trade clause and the deal was heavily backloaded.
We’re talking free agency here, however, with Harper and Machado 26. So let’s examine the top 11 free agent contracts of all time based on total value, with information courtesy of USA TODAY’s salary database and Cots’ Baseball Contracts.
1. Alex Rodriguez, Yankees: 10 years, $275 million — Rodriguez produced 169 home runs and a .845 OPS over the life of the deal. In its first two years, he merited two top-10 MVP finishes; in that second year, the Yankees won their only World Series championship since 2000 as A-Rod produced an epic postseason — a .365 average, 1.308 OPS and six home runs.
Oh, the bad stuff?
The hip surgery, the neverending Biogenesis scandal, the sparring between A-Rod and Yankees’ brass?
Oh, sure, it was ugly, but let’s not forget Rodriguez’s suspension for all of the 2014 season saved them $21 million in salary and enabled them to reduce their luxury tax bill.
Had Rodriguez’s bum hip kept him from finishing out the deal, the Yankees could have recouped most of the money via insurance.
So while there is always risk involved in mega-deals, keep in mind there are protections. And the Yankees hated the A-Rod era so much, they hired him as a special adviser as part of his deal to retire a Yankee.
2. Rodriguez, Rangers: 10 years, $252 million — In his time in Arlington, Texas, A-Rod produced three historic seasons for a shortstop (later acknowledging they were steroidfueled) but the team never left last place (perhaps Chan Ho Park’s $65 million pact was a bigger factor?).
Yet this odd marriage was easily annulled: The Rangers shipped Rodriguez to the Yankees after three seasons and even received marquee slugger Alfonso Soriano in return.
How injurious were the ARod years for the Rangers? Well, just months after dealing him in January 2004, they won 89 games, their most in five years, and contended deep into September.
3a. Pujols, Angels: 10 years, $240 million — Ah, yes, the
five-alarm fire that sends fans, executives and analysts alike into the fetal position when considering a long-term deal. Truth be told, pretty much everyone anticipated the final two to four years of the deal would be grim, given that Pujols was 32 when he signed it. That Pujols was already a replacement-level player or worse by Year 6 makes this pact even more awful than imagined.
Yet has the Pujols deal really hamstrung the Angels?
Consider what they were able to do even after committing nearly a quarter-billion dollars to Pujols:
Sign Mike Trout to a sixyear, $144 million extension.
Sign Josh Hamilton to a five-year, $125 million contract.
Trade for and sign Justin Upton to a five-year, $106 million extension.
True, the Angels have made the playoffs just once in Pujols’ seven seasons. Yet his diminishing production is just one factor in that equation, and probably less significant than the rash of pitching injuries depleting their staff in the Trout-Pujols Era.
The lesson here isn’t “avoid elite players at all costs.” It’s “avoid 10-year commitments to 32-year-olds.” 3b. Robinson Cano, Mariners: 10 years, $240 million — Then again, 10-year deals to thirty-somethings can also be pretty great, despite the head winds. The Mariners produced 86-, 87- and 89-win seasons in Cano’s five seasons, three of their four highest win totals since 2004. Cano was an AllStar three of those seasons and twice exceeded 6 Wins Above Replacement.
Ah, but an 80-game performance-enhancing drug suspension at the midpoint of Cano’s contract surely poisoned him, right?
Not exactly.
The Mariners, pivoting to a rebuild, were able to package Cano with elite closer Edwin Diaz and not only rid most of Cano’s remaining salary but receive premium prospect Jarred Kelenic in return. The New York Mets are thrilled to have Cano’s elite bat in their lineup. 4. David Price, Red Sox: Seven years, $217 million — Boston, where bad contracts metastasize amid overheated narratives. Well, the largest contract ever given a pitcher is working out OK for the Red Sox: They have won the AL East in all three of Price’s seasons and, in case you missed it, leaned pretty heavily on Price during their run to the 2018 World Series title.
Sure, Price has had health issues and some of his peripherals have been uneven. But as he enters Year 4, Price’s strikeouts per nine innings remain steady, and if you’re in the “Flags Fly Forever” camp, this deal has already paid for itself. 5. Prince Fielder, Tigers: Nine years, $214 million — Exhibit C in the case that hardly any contract is immovable and that value can be returned when dealing away a nine-figure commitment.
Heck, Fielder played every game and made a pair of All-Star teams in 2012-13 as the Tigers made it to one World Series and narrowly missed another pennant while fielding possibly their best team since 1984. When things soured in Detroit, the Tigers flipped Fielder (and some cash) to Texas for Ian Kinsler, who produced a pair of Gold Glove seasons and an All-Star campaign in Detroit as the Tigers won the AL Central again in 2014.
And lest we forget, when herniated disks in his neck forced Fielder to retire, insurance covered a reported $9 million annually of Fielder’s remaining commitment. 6. Max Scherzer, Nationals: Seven years, $210 million — One of the greatest free agent signings of all time, and Scherzer, too, had to rot on the market well into January before the Nationals stepped forward. In four seasons with Washington, he has won two Cy Young Awards while finishing second and fifth the other two years, in some eyes surpassing Harper as a fan favorite.
Although nobody is calling the Nationals the new Yankees, Scherzer’s contract has hardly kept them from doing things: A $175 million extension for Stephen Strasburg, a $140 million contract for Patrick Corbin, a $300 million offer to Harper along with a bevy of mid-range signings to keep Washington a perennial contender.
7. Zack Greinke, Diamondbacks: Six years, $206.5 million — It was a stunner at the time and remains so. Yet it eventually had the desired effect: The Diamondbacks stole Greinke from the division rival Dodgers and a year later won 93 games, earning a home wild-card date and trip to the Division Series. Their leader in WAR? Greinke, at 6.4.
They entered September 2018 tied for first place, but one bad month was sufficient to signal significant retreat and deal their affordable franchise player, Paul Goldschmidt. Is that blood on Greinke’s hands? Not really. With just three years left on his contract, Greinke can and probably will be shipped off soon. Arizona could have chosen to keep and try to retain Goldschmidt. 8. Jason Heyward, Cubs: Eight years, $184 million — Again, what do you see when you consider this contract? A proverbial suboptimal deal? A glaring example of inefficiency?
Or the first Chicago Cubs’ World Series title since 1908, aided significantly by their defensively elite right fielder, who posted 14 Defensive Runs Saved? Despite Heyward’s offensive foibles, the Cubs have won 103, 92 and 95 games in his three seasons.
You could argue Heyward is the guy preventing a Cubs run at Harper. Yet somewhat like the Pujols deal, that pursuit is also compounded by misfires on pitchers Tyler Chatwood and Yu Darvish last winter.
And in glancing at the Cubs’ current and future revenue, it’s safe to say the only thing preventing the Cubs from a Harper run is the Cubs themselves. 9. Mark Teixeira, Yankees: Eight years, $180 million — Talk about immediate return on investment — Teixeira slammed 39 home runs, finished runnerup in the AL MVP race and helped spearhead the Yankees’ lone title these past two decades. While a wrist injury robbed him of most of 2013, Teixeira hit 206 home runs as a Yankee, with a .822 OPS. 10a. CC Sabathia, Yankees: Seven years, $161 million — The winter of 2008-09, the penultimate offseason with George Steinbrenner atop the organization, produced a free agent bonanza led by Teixeira, Sabathia and A.J. Burnett (who got an $82 million deal). Lest we forget, that last Yankees’ title was won with Sabathia, Burnett and Andy Pettitte pitching every playoff game and starting on three days’ rest when necessary.
Is that good value? 10b. Chris Davis, Orioles: Seven years, $161 million — OK, this one’s problematic.
The rebuilding Orioles have little choice but to reconstruct their hulking slugger, $6 Million Man style, after one of the worst offensive seasons in baseball history. Yet even the small-market Orioles did not shy away from going for it in the first three years of the deal, claiming a wild-card spot in 2016 before things got sideways late in 2017 and in a 115-loss 2018.
Yet they survived that and will survive the Davis contract as they, finally, fully embrace a commitment to scouting and development, which will always be the backbone of championship franchises.
That doesn’t mean an occasional splurge will ruin the process.