Fantastic finishes can create controversy
At first glance, the email I received a couple of weeks ago posed what could be the most difficult ethical decision I’d ever faced in my 13 years as commissioner of the original fantasy baseball experts league.
One small thing can make a major difference in the final results. We’ve seen it happen so many times. One hit, one strikeout, one blown save.
But what happens when a hit isn’t really a hit? And no one knows it wasn’t … until it’s too late?
Before getting into the gory details, this is a good time to remind everyone who’s going to be playing in fantasy leagues this season that it’s essential to know your league rules before you start the season.
Sure, the basics are important. Categories or points-based? Rotisserie or head-to-head? Does the league count batting average or on-base percentage? Are free agents added by waiver claims or FAAB bids?
Those are easy enough to follow, and they obviously shape one’s strategy heading into the draft. Then there are times when a rule has no impact at the beginning of the season but it becomes a big deal later (at the trade deadline) or at the very end.
How many fantasy league titles were decided last year by the two additional games needed to determine the NL Central and NL West division champions?
Before those games took place, however, fantasy leaguers needed to know whether they counted in the first place. Having a league constitution is one way to avoid unnecessary controversy when the stakes are highest.
Postseason reversal?
In the League of Alternative Baseball Reality (LABR), our rule has always been that the fantasy season ends on the final day of the regular season. Tiebreaker games don’t count.
Fortunately, everyone in the league knew that rule as last season drew to a close. That’s one potential land mine avoided. But if things get too close, there’s always the potential for controversy.
In LABR Mixed, Tim McLeod of Prospect 361 held the top spot for almost the entire season. Then as September dragged on, his grasp on first place began slipping as his hitters all seemed to go into a collective slump.
Meanwhile, Rotowire’s Derek VanRiper kept incrementally gaining ground. By the last week of the regular season, it became clear we’d have a photo finish on our hands, with batting average the deciding factor. McLeod began the final day with a half-point lead in the overall standings.
As the Game 162s played out, VanRiper managed to squeak ahead. He finished third in batting average at .2622, just ahead of Baseball HQ’s Ray Murphy at .2621. Meanwhile McLeod dropped a spot, finishing at .2572, just behind Bret Sayre of Baseball Prospectus at .2573.
The difference in a two-point swing in the standings was one hit (and .0001 in batting average) for both competitors. VanRiper finished in first by the slimmest 1.5-point margin in LABR history. But it turns out, that wasn’t the end. Then came the fateful email from Tim Jensen, the COO of RealTime Fantasy Sports, which serves as LABR’s official host website.
After the season ended, MLB issued a stat correction in an otherwise meaningless second game of a Sept. 28 doubleheader between the Minnesota Twins and Chicago White Sox: A double by Twins outfielder Jake Cave was changed to a two-base error.
Take away that hit from Cave, and VanRiper loses a point in batting average
A lump formed in my throat. What if that one hit flipped the overall standings?
Thankfully, only pride and bragging rights are on the line in LABR. But in leagues that have monetary rewards for the winning teams, conflicts could escalate quickly if there’s a change in the final standings after the season is over.
As it turned out, rerunning the season stats did just that. McLeod was on top by a half-point.
Three months after the season ended, how was I going to break the news? After several frantic emails with Jensen, we discovered the revised stats did include Game 163. After subtracting those results, VanRiper was back on top, 119.5 to 119. Crisis avoided.
(It turns out, if we had counted last season’s two tiebreaker games, McLeod would have been the champion. Yet another cruel twist of fate.)
That’s why Jensen says RT Sports imposes a mandatory waiting period before league standings are official:
“Since statistics are not final until noon on the Thursday following (the end of the regular season), we do not pay our full-season winners out until that deadline has passed.”
There’s already enough drama as fantasy leagues go down to the wire. No need to add more by declaring a winner too early.
Value of Game 163
The situation in LABR’s Mixed league only serves to reinforce the importance of making sure everyone knows the ground rules before the season starts.
However, it also calls attention to whether fantasy leagues should count any tiebreaker games after the regular season ends.
Technically, those games are part of the regular season, not the playoffs, in MLB’s final statistics.
The Tout Wars experts leagues include Game 163, which made for an even more thrilling finish in the NL.
A case can be made for counting or not counting tiebreaker games, but I don’t believe they should. Since LABR has partnered with RT Sports since 2013, we’ve always used their standard rule.
“Counting game 163 obviously gives random teams the opportunity to accumulate additional statistics,” Jensen says. “For a fantasy contest to be as fair as possible, all team owners should have the same knowledge and opportunity in assembling rosters to win.”
In the end, we want a competition that’s fair for all, where everyone plays under the same rules and conditions.
As a reminder, the 2019 MLB season begins with two games in Japan between the Mariners and Athletics March 20-21, a week before the other 28 teams play their openers. Make sure everyone in your league knows beforehand whether or not those games count.