Budding middle-tier starting pitchers to watch
When it comes to compiling a rotation of starting pitchers, it can be easy to segregate them into two groups. The first consists of legit aces like Max Scherzer, Chris Sale and Justin Verlander. Then there is everyone else.
Some view that second group as a crapshoot, but doing so results in a lot of missed buying opportunities. Many of those middle-tier pitchers have shown signs that suggest they could become rotation anchors. The key is knowing which of them are worthy of your investment.
Instead of looking at a pitcher’s surface stats like wins and ERA, dig a level or two deeper. Analyze their rates of strikeouts, walks and ground balls. Then break up those components even further by identifying their levels of swinging and first-pitch strikes, as those indicators often can predict future swings in strikeouts and walks.
Here is a closer look at several middle-tier starting pitchers in each league whose underlying skills suggest they have good growth potential in 2019.
American League
Blossoming Twins righty Jose Berrios took a big step forward last season, even though his 3.84 ERA was nearly identical to the one he posted in 2017. He increased his rates of swinging and first-pitch strikes dramatically, which allowed his strikeout per walk ration (K/BB) to crack the 3.0 barrier. In addition, he has made steady gains to improve his command against lefty batters. And he’s still just 24.
Many owners have also soured on Dylan Bundy of the Orioles, a former top prospect who has struggled with injuries and inconsistency. But Bundy’s command has improved in each of the past two seasons, as has his rate of swinging strikes. Most of the damage against him has been caused by left-handed hitters. With a tweak against them, Bundy could finally deliver on his SP1 potential in 2019.
Tyler Glasnow of the Rays is another former top starting pitching prospect who has not delivered on that upside. While his 4.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP did not help his owners in 2018, his skills were much better than those we have seen from him in the past. In fact, they resulted in a skills-adjusted expected ERA in the mid-3s. With an ability to induce ground balls and miss bats with his upper-90s fastball, Glasnow has the tools to become an impact starting pitcher this season.
Few pitchers have a lengthier injury history than that of Angels lefty Andrew Heaney. But he overcame those demons in 2018 and delivered 180 innings. While his 4.15 ERA left a lot to be desired, his 4.0 K/BB and high rates of swinging and first-pitch strikes suggest he has the goods to deliver a 3.50 ERA in 2019.
Detroit left-hander Matthew Boyd has lost a lot of appeal in fantasy leagues. He has yet to post a sub-4.00 ERA. It is a fact that has led him to go undrafted in many leagues. However, Boyd has shown flashes of impactful skills in the past, most recently in the second half of 2018 when he delivered a 5.2 K/ BB and increased his fastball velocity by 2 mph.
Many people have forgotten about former Yankees starter Michael Pineda of the Twins due to the knee and elbow surgeries that he has endured in recent seasons. Although he is not yet fully healthy, Pineda has all the tools to become a $15 starting pitcher in 2019. He keeps the ball on the ground and routinely shows upper-tier command. Those strengths have been hidden due to his struggles with keeping the ball in the park. Moving away from Yankee Stadium will help him; now is a great time to buy low.
National League
Former top pitching prospect Walker Buehler of the Dodgers is one the most obvious budding rotation anchors in the game. His current 39 average draft position (ADP) confirms that he is being drafted as such. It is happening due to the top-tier 4.1 K/ BB and strong 50 percent ground-ball rate he produced in 2018. Buehler has the tools to post a 3.00-ERA, 200-strikeout breakout in 2019.
Cincinnati right-hander Luis Castillo looked like a breakout target heading into the 2018 season. He struggled early on, which caused many owners to sour on him. But few pitchers were better than Castillo in the second half. He had a 2.63 ERA and 1.01 WHIP after July 1, marks that came with the support of an elite 5.0 K/BB. Do not be surprised if Castillo finally develops into an ace this season.
Rockies righty Jon Gray also entered the big leagues with a lot of prospect hype. He seemingly took a step backward in 2018 when he posted a 5.12 ERA. But his overall skills showed no erosion from those that helped him to a 3.67 ERA the year prior. And his rate of swinging strikes soared from 2017 to 2018. Gray is a great bargain at his current 205 ADP.
Gray’s rotation mate German Marquez also is one of the best breakout targets in the game. Those who got rid of him after his ugly 5.14 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in the first half of 2018 made a mistake. Marquez looked like a true ace in the second half, a period when he produced a 2.57 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 6.7 K/BB. He also kept the ball on the ground at a high rate, which will help him given his home park.
Pittsburgh’s Joe Musgrove is recovering from offseason abdominal surgery but is close to making his spring debut. Few pitchers do a better job than Musgrove of pounding the strike zone early and often. He also misses bats at an above-average clip. If he can finally stay healthy, Musgrove is another arm with $15 potential.
Phillies righty Nick Pivetta is coming off a 2018 season in which he posted a mediocre 4.77 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. That said, Pivetta’s 10.3 K/9 and solid 47 percent ground-ball rate give him a sturdy skills foundation. It was one that suggested his ERA would have been a mid-3s if not for an inflated batting average on balls in play.
Arizona right-hander Luke Weaver does not carry the hype that he had coming into the 2018 season. He struggled to find a strikeout pitch during his sophomore campaign with the Cardinals last year. But he still owns the electric skills he displayed late in 2017. He worked in the offseason to develop a better curveball, and he will have a fresh start with the Diamondbacks. Weaver carries good profit potential.
Ross Stripling of the Dodgers is a late-bloomer who looked like an upper-rotation starting pitcher in 2018, albeit in a small sample size of 122 innings pitched. He did a great job of getting ahead of hitters, which helped him post a great 6.2 K/ BB. And that mark was excellent against both lefty and righty bats.