❚ Can slow starters rebound?
Baseball players all go through slumps and streaks. However, when a player begins a season in a prolonged slump, it tends to induce panic among his fantasy owners. While we are cautioned not to put too much faith in small samples, a slow start might indicate something has changed. So which slow starts should worry us?
Here, we will evaluate some slow starters, position by position. We’ll try to find an explanation behind the slow start so we can assess the odds of a rebound.
Catcher
Expectations were high for J.T. Realmuto of the Philadelphia Phillies, given his move to a hitter’s park. With only five home runs, though, he’s not even a top-five catcher. His power has always been about average, and he’s only a couple of homers off his 2018 pace, and on pace for 90-plus RBI and runs.
However, his stolen bases have been declining since 2016, and the Phillies have attempted just 16 swipes all season. His speed game is effectively over.
Verdict: He’s just fine, aside from the steals
First base
Joey Votto of the Cincinnati Reds is enduring the worst season of his career, with a .208 average, four home runs and eight RBI. His problems are a combination of declining plate discipline and reduced power. He’s always been a savvy hitter, so there’s a chance he turns things around. However, at 36, his physical skills might have declined too much to recover fully, and his struggles are consistent with an age-related decline.
Verdict: Perhaps some rebound, but probably not back to his 2018 production level
Jesus Aguilar of the Milwaukee Brewers came out of nowhere in 2018 to hit 35 home runs. However, he’s currently hitting .202 and on pace for just 11 homers. We might write him off as a one-year wonder and move on, but he’s started to turn things around. Through April 28, he was sporting a .123/.217/ .151 slash line, but he’s at .314/ .446/.529 since then, and his hard-hit percentage has jumped to over 40%.
Verdict: Cautiously optimistic that improvement is coming Second base
Not everyone was sold on Robinson Cano of the New York Mets coming all the way back from a PED suspension, but something like his 2017 (.280, 23 HRs, 97 RBI) seemed reasonable. That makes his .257 batting average and three home runs a disappointment. His strikeout rate (20%) has been high all season, but his power was above-average prior to being hit on the hand at the end of April. Expect his power to return over time, and the batting average with it. His 2017 pace is still a reasonable expectation.
Verdict: He might struggle for a little bit but should eventually return to form
Shortstop
It was reasonable to expect leaving Baltimore would affect Manny Machado of the San Diego Padres, but given his huge 2018, a .262 average with nine homers and 24 RBI is still disappointing. Although they’re small samples, comparing his April production (.242/.343/ .396) to May’s (.303/.365/.591) suggests the slow start was only temporary. He’s also cut his strikeout rate in half since the start of May.
Verdict: He’s just fine
Third Base
Many worried Jose Ramirez’s stellar 2018 season was driven in large part by an outsized home run-per-fly ball percentage (HR/F%) in the first half. They were probably right, but his .189-4-14 start still looks pretty fluky. He’s been unlucky so far, with a 6% HR/F% and a .209 batting average on balls in play. Both of those should turn around, but … a return to his 2018 levels is unlikely, other than in stolen bases.
Verdict: Speed is fine; power and batting average should rebound, but not all the way to 2018 levels
Outfield
Bryce Harper of the Philadelphia Phillies had an average draft position (ADP) of 18, but he currently sits outside the top 150. He continues to pound the ball and is near the top of the league in exit velocity and hardhit percentage. His main issue is making contact; his .235 batting average and 31% strikeout rate (vs. 20% in 2017) are hurting his value.
In particular, he’s struggling versus sliders (a mere 45% contact rate) and pitchers are throwing more sliders than ever before. Unless he can adjust, his struggles will continue, and those adjustments could take some time. Plus, forget stolen bases (see Realmuto above).
Verdict: Power is solid; batting average might improve, but improvements might be slow to come.
Nick Castellanos of the Detroit Tigers has managed only four home runs thus far, but pretty much every secondary skill shows him to be the same guy he was in 2017-2018, aside from a small reduction in contact percentage. His batting average might suffer a little but expect him to rebound.
Verdict: Maybe a small dip in batting average; should be OK otherwise
Starting Pitcher
Chris Sale of the Boston Red Sox got off to a rough start, with a 9.00 ERA in his first three starts. Since then, he’s had a 2.91 ERA, supported by a ridiculous 43% whiff rate and a 6.3 strikeout-to-walk ratio (K/BB).
The Red Sox gave their starters very few innings in spring training, which might have led to some early struggles for the entire staff. If he stays healthy, Sale could be the best pitcher in baseball going forward. Verdict: Get him if you still can Zack Wheeler of the Mets surprised in 2018, leading to high expectations coming into this year. His 4.85 ERA and 1.44 WHIP are thus disappointing. However, he’s pitched about as well as he did last year, with a slight rise in walk rate accompanied by an increase in strikeout percentage.
What’s killed him is a .355 batting average on balls in play (league average is .298). He’s right around league average for hard-hit percentage, so he’s not giving up excessively hard contact. Expect Wheeler to get back on track.
Verdict: A 3.60-3.70 ERA is a good expectation for him the rest of the way
Relief Pitcher Andrew Miller of the St. Louis Cardinals was once so good an entire strategy was designed around him. He was not expected to be the closer this year but used in a multi-inning role where he would generate strikeouts and some saves. Instead, he has a 4.86 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
The main issue is his 12% walk rate (as recently as 2017, it was 8.6%). His control has been spotty throughout the years, but never this bad. However, since a two-walk outing April 24, he’s totaled a nine strikeouts and one walk in his last 71⁄3 innings. It’s a super-small sample, but there’s hope his struggles are behind him.
Verdict: No guarantees, but there are signs of a turnaround