Sizing up the stretch:
The Astros have asserted themselves at the trade deadline. The Dodgers and Yankees still look like worthy opponents. How do we rank the top eight World Series contenders?
Sure, the biggest news at Major League Baseball’s first-ever, one-time-only, singular trade deadline that ended last week might have been who didn’t move.
But let’s not fool ourselves: There were plenty of transactions on July 31 that will provide significant tremors come October.
And let’s not forget that in this top-heavy league environment, there were several borderline super-teams already assembled.
With that idea in mind, a look at the top eight World Series contenders after the final flurry of transactions set the organizational rosters from here through the Fall Classic:
1. Astros
What they did: Acquired starter Zack Greinke from the Arizona Diamondbacks for three top prospects; acquired catcher Martin Maldonado from the Chicago Cubs for out fielder Tony Kemp; acquired reliever Joe Biagini and starter Aaron Sanchez from the Toronto Blue Jays for out fielder Derek Fisher.
What they didn’t do: Not much. They may wonder if Biagini is enough for a bullpen currently missing injured righty Ryan Pressly. But in adding Greinke, a former Cy Young winner and durable starter still carrying a 0.95 WHIP, it’s tough to gripe about fringe moves not made.
Why they could win it all: Justin Verlander. Gerrit Cole. Greinke. You think the deepest lineup in baseball – now fully healthy – can hit enough to support those guys? The Astros were already the most complete team in baseball. Adding Greinke just tilted the field and gave them the pitchers with three of the top six WHIPs in baseball.
Why they could come up short: If Verlander, 36, and Greinke, 35, somehow feel their age come October. The bullpen is possibly vulnerable, but adding Maldonado and Greinke just significantly upgraded their run prevention in this year of the rabbit ball.
Consensus: The Astros added Greinke and seized the AL’s best record, while potential wild-card survivor Cleveland dealt Trevor Bauer and the Yankees did not enhance their shaky pitching. Not saying the road to the pennant just opened up, but…
2. Dodgers
What they did: Acquired lefty reliever Adam Kolarek from the Tampa Bay Rays; acquired infielder Jedd Gyorko from the St. Louis Cardinals.
What they didn’t do: Trade for top reliever Felipe Vazquez. Trade for another starting pitcher. Blow up their farm system.
Why they could win it all: Lest we forget, the Dodgers lead the NL in runs, home runs, OPS, ERA, opponent’s batting average, OPS against, strikeoutwalk ratio and saltiness after just missing a pair of World Series titles.
Why they could come up short: That bullpen, mostly. Kenley Jansen is in danger of losing his closer job; if only there were a solid candidate to supplant him. Yet Joe Kelly, much maligned after struggling in the first year of a three-year, $25 million deal, is getting right – 30 strikeouts in 202⁄3 innings since May 27.
Consensus: Rest assured every Dodgers fan will chart Vazquez’s next two seasons and the career arcs of Gavin Lux, Dustin May and others should the Dodgers not win it all. But let’s be honest: Nobody in the NL comes close to these guys. And don’t be surprised if May, the towering redhead overpowering hitters in Class AAA, doesn’t step on the scene as a late-season bullpen weapon.
3. Yankees
What they did: Acquired out fielder Terrance Gore.
What they didn’t do: Got a minute? No starting pitcher, no relief help, just a firm conviction that they’re good enough to vanquish the Astros despite a rotation that posted a 13.78 ERA in a recent eight-game stretch.
Why they could win it all: “We’ve got everything we need to be a championship club,” manager Aaron Boone said after the deadline – and after another Yankees win. It was said with a straight face and even a hint of truth: These guys are loaded, capable of exploiting their homer-happy ballpark and an excellent bullpen to win plenty of (very long) postseason games.
Why they could come up short: Is Masahiro Tanaka (4.78 ERA) your Game 1 starter? Will untested Domingo German or hit-happy J.A. Happ be forced to start an elimination game? Can 39-year-old CC Sabathia still be effective in the postseason?
Consensus: It’s hard to discount the intimidation factor with this club, particularly if Giancarlo Stanton (knee) and Luke Voit (sports hernia) return without incident. They will probably match up with the Twins in the postseason, and while the casts have changed since their long-running October domination of Minnesota, it’s easy to imagine a similar outcome now. Beyond that? That’s where regret from an im-
potent trade deadline might kick in.
4. Braves
What they did: Acquired relievers Shane Greene, Mark Melancon and Chris Martin.
What they didn’t do: Add a starting pitcher to a relatively thin group (Is this sounding familiar?).
Why they could win it all: This is a near-complete team, potentially explosive offensively and with a potent mix of dynamic youth and seasoned playoff veterans who are still productive. Their NL East foes are significantly more flawed, perhaps enabling a tension-free on ramp to the postseason. And though they could use another starter, adding Dallas Keuchel in June tilted the division’s balance of power their way.
Why they could come up short: While back-end rotation members like Kevin Gausman (6.19 ERA) won’t be a factor in October, the overall dearth of proven arms might be their undoing. Rookie Mike Soroka is their best pitcher but has never thrown more than 153 innings in a season, a total he should surpass in early September.
Consensus: From the young bucks like Ronald Acuna Jr., Ozzie Albies and Dansby Swanson and the older hands such as Josh Donaldson and Brian McCann, the Braves are potent. They did all the right things at the deadline. Another playoff exit at the hands of the Dodgers seems the likeliest outcome – but underestimate them at your peril.
5. Twins
What they did: Acquired relievers Sergio Romo from the Tampa Bay Rays and Sam Dyson from the San Francisco Giants.
What they didn’t do: Add to a shaky starting rotation.
Why they could win it all: Their penchant for the home run (a major league-leading 217 at press time) never seems to slump, and they lead the majors in OPS. While the rotation is thin, All-Star Jose Berrios is capable of matching up with anyone’s ace.
Why they could come up short: Do starters Kyle Gibson, Michael Pineda, Jake Odorizzi and Martin Perez have the sort of shutdown stuff that plays in October? Will Miguel Sano let them down defensively? Will the hyper-intensive scouting and power arms that mark October dull their offensive production?
Consensus: Beyond the Astros’ ransom payment for Greinke, it’s clear starting pitching prices were fairly insane. So the Twins did quite well to shore up their bullpen with the resourceful and seasoned Romo and Dyson, who sports a 0.90 WHIP and should slide right into a ninth-inning role.
6. Indians
What they did: Traded Trevor Bauer to the Cincinnati Reds in a three-way deal with San Diego for outfielders Yasiel Puig and Franmil Reyes, pitcher Logan Allen and two prospects.
What they didn’t do: Add a meaningful bullpen piece, which might create matchup problems should they reach October. Why they could win it all: While their upcoming schedule is challenging, 16 of their final 33 are against the Royals, White Sox and Tigers, which if nothing else could firm up their status as the No. 1 wild-card entry.
Why they could come up short: While the Indians have rallied to get within three games of the Twins, chasing them down and/or surviving the AL wild-card thicket will prove challenging.
Consensus: The Bauer trade nicely balanced a pitching heavy club that was woefully short in the outfield. Now, they’ll need some old hands – Corey Kluber, Danny Salazar or Carlos Carrasco, who is recovering from leukemia – to return and make up for Bauer’s loss. The notion of Mike Clevinger in a one-game wild card is enticing; getting further will be more challenging.
7. Cardinals
What they did: Acquired reliever Zac Rosscup; traded infielder Jedd Gyorko to the Dodgers. What they didn’t do: Replace injured closer Jordan Hicks. Why they could win it all: Does the hot hand matter? The Cardinals went into the deadline on a 17-8 run, buoyed by a predictably resurgent Paul Goldschmidt. Strangely, they carry fewer burdens of expectations than their NL Central mates and in Jack Flaherty possess a power arm that would play well in October. A division title would mean avoiding the Dodgers in the Division Series.
Why they could come up
short: Their lineup lacks the length of that of the Braves and Dodgers, and their pitching is not so dominant to make up that gap. It also figures that any playoff berth will come at the end of a three-team divisional dogfight, creating a potential NLDS handicap.
Consensus: Hard to believe the Cardinals haven’t reached the postseason since 2015. Doing so now will require the return to health and peak production of regulars like Marcell Ozuna, Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter.
8. Cubs
What they did: Acquired outfielders Nick Castellanos from the Tigers and Tony Kemp from the Astros, reliever David Phelps from the Blue Jays and swingman Derek Holland from the Giants.
What they didn’t do: Lend any clarity to manager Joe Maddon’s future.
Why they could win it all: Kris Bryant remains in his prime. Jason Heyward is having his best offensive season in Chicago. If gravitas matters, the pitching staff alone – with Jon Lester, Cole Hamels and Craig Kimbrel – can claim parts in three different championship clubs, though Kimbrel was placed on the injured list with a knee injury Aug. 5.
Why they could come up short: So many moving parts; so much uncertainty. Maddon is entering the final two months of his lame-duck season. Addison Russell is out; Ben Zobrist, trying to return from a threemonth stint on the restricted list as he handled a divorce, hopes to be back in. Second baseman Daniel Descalso and reliever Pedro Strop are among the notables aiming to return from injury.
Consensus: Perhaps no team has such a wide range of potential outcomes. It’s possible to envision it all coming together and ending in another delirious parade. It’s also feasible they finish third in the Central, bid Maddon adieu and embark on another winter of soul searching and possible upheaval.