Houston’s steady hands take on upstart Nats
Alex Bregman and many of his Astros teammates won the 2017 World Series. How will they fare against the upstart Nationals?
HOUSTON – October is down to its final days, and the experimenters have gone home. The workarounds have collapsed, and the only teams still playing baseball are those built on a foundation that has ruled the game for decades.
The Nationals and Astros are playing the 115th World Series secure in the knowledge that the majority of their pitches will be thrown by the greatest arms in the game. The methods that can carry a team through 162 games – the “Opener” strategy, the commitment to short starts or bullpen games – crumbled this postseason.
So in this Fall Classic, the itinerant starter – he answers to “TBA” – will make at most one appearance, for the Astros in Game 4. Even then, they might opt to deploy rookie Jose Urquidy in a conventional manner and have him start the game.
Otherwise, it’s aces galore in what on paper looks to be a delight for pitching aficionados as the Astros aim for their second title in three years and the Nationals their first in franchise history.
For starters
Projected rotations
Game 1: Washington RHP Max Scherzer (11-7, 2.92 ERA) vs. Houston RHP Gerrit Cole (20-5, 2.50 ERA)
Game 2: Washington RHP Stephen Strasburg (18-6, 3.32) vs. Houston RHP Justin Verlander (21-6, 2.58)
Game 3: Washington LHP Patrick Corbin (14-7, 3.25) vs. Houston RHP Zack Greinke (18-5, 2.93)
Game 4: Washington RHP Anibal Sanchez (11-8, 3.85 ERA) vs. Houston RHP Brad Peacock (7-6, 4.12)
In a series featuring three former Cy Young winners and at least five hurlers who should receive votes in this year’s balloting, Cole looms above them all. Nobody was more dominant this season – Cole struck out 326 in 2121⁄3 innings – and perhaps most significant, no starter in this series had been so unblemished in the postseason prior to the start of it. Cole carried the Astros out of danger in the ALDS, beating Tampa Bay in Games 1 and 5, and bulled past the Yankees in ALCS Game 3. Through the ALCS, he had given up just one earned run in 222⁄3 innings overall, a 0.40 ERA. Entering the series, he other highly decorated hurlers have gotten clipped at least once:
❚ A four-run first inning toppled Verlander in ALCS Game 5, and the Rays also blitzed him for four runs in an ALDS start on three days’ rest.
❚ Greinke was ambushed by Tampa Bay for six runs in ALDS Game 3.
❚ Scherzer gave up three runs in the first two innings of the NL wild-card game.
❚ Strasburg’s career postseason ERA is now 1.10, but he departed NLDS Game 5 facing a 3-1 deficit.
❚ Corbin walked five in NLDS Game 1 and gave up six runs in a Game 3 relief appearance.
So there’s only one truly invulnerable arm in this Series, and that makes the Astros’ walk-off win in ALCS Game 6 all the more significant. Cole was schedule to start Game 1 and Game 5, at least, rather than a Game 7 ALCS start limiting him to perhaps one outing in this battle.
Should he win both outings, the Nationals will have to go 4-1 against everybody else. It’s a perilous, but navigable path, almost certainly requiring two outcomes: Strasburg continuing his playoff dominance and besting Verlander in Game 2, and Sanchez continuing his stellar postseason (one earned run, five hits in 122⁄3 innings) by beating Peacock, Urquidy and a cast in Game 4.
Checkers and chess
Hinch’s ploy to go for the kill with Verlander on short rest backfired in the ALDS. In this series, both managers face interesting Game 4 choices should they be the one down 2-1 (or worse yet 3-0).
Would Hinch start Cole on three days’ rest rather than risk a possible bullpen game? Would Martinez do the same with Scherzer even though Sanchez has been stellar?
The Nationals’ NLCS sweep of punchless St. Louis took care of a big headache for Martinez – he never had to use a starter in relief and barely had to dip into his trough of relievers.
Washington probably won’t be so fortunate this time, with a potentially long season and a potent Houston lineup. Rookie right-hander Tanner Rainey has eased into Martinez’s October circle of trust by retiring 15 of 18 batters faced.
How quickly will Martinez go to Rainey and, less optimally, Fernando Rodney? Can he beat Houston with, essentially, a seven-man staff ?
Hinch has fewer such problems, and even if he opts for a bullpen night in Game 4, he knows Cole is waiting to reset the squad in Game 5. He’ll draw comfort from Will Harris’ postseason performance – the setup man is unscored upon in 52⁄3 innings – but will fireman Ryan Pressly’s balky knee hold up? Can long man Josh James improve on a shaky ALCS in which he allowed six of his last 12 batters faced to reach base?
Keep an eye on
Juan Soto: He’ll turn 21 the night of Game 3, but in lieu of gifts, he and the Nationals hope the prodigy can regain his stroke at the plate. In less than two years in the majors, Soto has shown a knack for adjusting when even the briefest slumps occur. The Cardinals pitched him very tough, striking him out seven times in 16 at-bats and holding him to one extra-base hit. Washington has enjoyed epic production from Nos. 4-5 hitters Anthony Rendon and Howie Kendrick (a combined 23 hits leading up tot the series), but the going’s about to get tougher. It will need a productive Soto to keep the middle of the order cooking.
George Springer: He was held to four hits in 25 ALCS at-bats, but this is October, and Springer always equals damage. Springer homered in victories in Games 1 and 3, the latter a go-ahead third-inning shot. Springer has a .894 OPS in 43 playoff games, and the Astros are 9-3 when he goes deep.
In the end
It has been an epic run for the Nationals – an absurd 82-40 record since their well-documented 19-31 skid to start the season. It seems almost foolish to side against a club playing so well and, at this point, demoralizing opponents.
But the Astros are no ordinary foe. While the Nationals have leaned on a veteran core that’s the oldest in the majors, Houston combines the seasoning of three deep playoff runs with a squad that remains in its physical prime. They dispatched an excellent Yankees team in six games despite batting just .179.
“Altuve, and Gerrit and Will Harris are the only three who have played outstanding this postseason,” said third baseman Alex Bregman, who batted .167 against the Yankees. “I think our best baseball is yet to be played.”
These Nationals have holes – namely, that bullpen that only received a partial fix at the trade deadline – but they just vanquished a squad that was incapable of exposing them.
Houston’s deep lineup, potentially dominant rotation and good-enough bullpen will provide a test the Nationals can’t quite pass.
Prediction: Astros in 5.