Falcons (3-6) at Saints (7-2)
Sunday, 1 ET, Mercedes-Benz Superdome, New Orleans TV: Fox
Danny Sheridan’s line: Saints by 4 1⁄
2
Falcons’ keys to victory: Deep completions downfield will be their best bet against a stingy Saints defense, which may mean big days for WRs Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones. QB Matt Ryan must evade the aggressive Saints pass rush, particularly DE Cameron Jordan, who sacked him four times on Thanksgiving last season. Preparation on defense might be difficult. With the injury to QB Drew Brees it is not clear if the Saints will turn to Jameis Winston or Taysom Hill. Either way, DT Grady Jarrett must win his matchups in the trenches vs. a vulnerable Saints interior offensive line.
Saints’ keys to victory: Start with quarterback. With Brees sidelined, the arm of Winston or the legs of Hill become crucial. RB Alvin Kamara figures to play a crucial role. New Orleans must be wary of Falcons receivers on vertical routes and TE Hayden Hurst. His yards-per-reception rate is nearly double on first down (9.8) as on second and third downs (5.2). The Saints have had more success defending tight ends with S Malcolm Jenkins.
Matchup to watch: Falcons WR Jones vs. Saints CB Marshon Lattimore. Lattimore and Jones have had memorable battles. If Lattimore can slow Jones down again, it will free up the defense to commit more resources to Ridley. Conversely, Atlanta needs Jones to open up the rest of the offense.
Who wins? The Falcons’ offense has done its job this year, and the defense has stepped up, but the New Orleans pass rush should make a big enough difference.
Saints 32-30