Making mock sense:
Why former NFL executives say they have used mock drafts at times ahead of the real draft.
Days before the 2001 NFL draft, former New Orleans Saints general manager Randy Mueller remembers sitting in his war room, sifting through what he recalls to be dozens of mock drafts that were compiled for him. The Saints, sitting at No. 23, were trying to figure out how the picks in front of them might play out.
Only one of the dozens of mock drafts piled on the table in front of him had Mississippi running back Deuce McAllister being there that late in the first round; most of the mocks had the prospect off the board several picks earlier. Had it not been for that one draft that mocked McAllister to the Saints at No. 23, one of the greatest running backs in franchise history may never have put on a Saints uniform.
“That particular mock gave us a chance to discuss, as a staff, what we would do if that played out. We spent a lot of time thinking through pros and cons and what would be best during that discussion. Sure enough, two days later it came to fruition,” Mueller told USA TODAY Sports Weekly.
“I don’t think I could have pulled the trigger with that selection – we already had Ricky Williams on our roster – had we not discussed it thoroughly already. I’m a believer making decisions while on the clock is a no-no.”
McAllister went on to make two Pro Bowls with the Saints. As for Williams, he was traded to the Miami Dolphins after the season.
While most current NFL general managers won’t openly admit to reading and following mock drafts, it turns out that a number of the league’s executives and talent evaluators actual do read NFL draft projections. It isn’t for entertainment value, however, but rather to project how things might play out.
Mock drafts have value for GMs, with a number of them
like Mueller saying that they regularly used them to help sort out different scenarios and also what other teams might be thinking.
The underlying rationale from these former NFL executives holds that, even when not stated, media insiders are basing their mock drafts not on conjecture but rather on at least some information gleaned from sources. (Editor’s note: When USA TODAY compiles its mock drafts, we rarely talk to team sources. We rely more on piecing together news media reports and trying to extrapolate teams’ drafting styles and what their needs are.)
“A scout will compile a number of the mock drafts because they assume the information is coming from somewhere and it gives them insight on what other teams are thinking in the early rounds,” said Joey Clinkscales,
former director of player personnel for the Raiders. “Each team has a potential ‘needs list’ for every other team especially after free agency and prior to the draft.”
Clinkscales, who was the director of college scouting with the New York Jets prior to his seven seasons in Oakland (2012-18), said that he would use as many as six or seven mock drafts from reputable insiders to help formulate his different scenarios. Because so many of these media draft experts are routinely being fed information from sources within different organizations, there is a general sense among other NFL talent evaluators that the mock drafts can carry truths.
“I would glance at them more in terms of being interested in what the mocks were projecting since I assumed they were getting some info from team people,”
said Jeff Diamond, former general manager of the Minnesota Vikings and later president of the Tennessee Titans.
“But I certainly was never influenced nor were my scouts in what was in the mocks, as we spent millions of dollars on the scouting department and the scouting process so we had to rely on our own grades, how we lined up our draft board and how we judged our team needs.”
That perhaps is the takeaway for many NFL teams and the individuals charged with sorting through not only college prospects but also all the noise surrounding the draft.
Mock drafts are successful for page views because they ultimately create opinions among fan bases. Opinions lead to controversy. And controversy sells in today’s digital world.
For NFL teams, there is the practical side to the equation
whereby mock drafts can help a team project what other teams might be doing in the draft and prospects who could be targeted. .
And while these former general managers and personnel directors are in the business of grading and drafting college talent, it doesn’t mean that they too don’t find entertainment in all the mock drafts, too.
During a stressful time of the offseason, filled with long hours and pressure, it turns out that the mock draft industry can be good for a much-needed break.
Mueller admits that he and his fellow decision-makers would sometimes even snicker at mock drafts.
“But it was because we really didn’t care for a particular player that we might see being drafted way earlier or way later and the mock was way different than we had him rated,” he says.