Jaguars at Texans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: CBS
Tipico line: Texans by 2 1⁄2
Jaguars’ keys to victory: Rookie QB Trevor Lawrence proved in the preseason finale with the Dallas Cowboys that he has the composure and skill to pick apart first-team defenses. The Jaguars also need to test Houston’s ability to stop the run with RBs James Robinson and Carlos Hyde. Jacksonville needs to win the battle at the line of scrimmage and force Houston to pass rather than settle in with its new-look rushing attack. QB Deshaun Watson isn’t expected to play due to the civil suits filed by 22 women against him.
Texans’ keys to victory: The Texans had an NFL-best 10 takeaways in preseason, which could help them against a rookie quarterback. Houston can neutralize Jacksonville’s nascent passing attack with an effective ground game led by RB Mark Ingram and gamemanaging QB Tyrod Taylor. The Texans could also capitalize by winning the return game with WR Andre Roberts on kickoffs and CB Desmond King on punt returns.
Matchup to watch: Texans DE Whitney Mercilus vs. Jaguars LT Cam Robinson. If Mercilus, a former outside linebacker, can be effective in a 3-point stance and get to the passer, it should provide the necessary disruption to the Jacksonville offense. If Robinson wins these battles, Lawrence will be surgical from a clean pocket and pick apart Houston’s secondary.
Who wins? The Texans will force the Jaguars to play a grittier version of football that neutralizes Lawrence and his receivers. Houston’s ball-control offense is boosted by a couple takeaways, and David Culley gets career win No. 1 over fellow rookie coach Urban Meyer.
Texans, 20-19