Colts (5-5) at Bills (6-3)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York

TV: CBS

Tipico Sportsbook wire: Bills by 61⁄2

Colts’ keys to victory: On both sides of the ball, Indy has to force the run game with Jonathan Taylor. When Buffalo has struggled this season on defense, it has usually come against a power rusher like Taylor or the Titans’ Derrick Henry. Plus, the Bills’ secondary is fresh off a four-interception outing vs. the Jets. The Colts shouldn’t overthink the game plan on offense. Defensively, they need to focus on QB Josh Allen. While the Bills scored 45 in Week 10, the two games before that, defenses played two safeties high and forced Buffalo into using short passes and the run game.

Bills’ keys to victory: After two lackluster outings, Buffalo rebuilt its confidence against the Jets last week. That type of swagger has to be brought against the Colts. Offensively, the spark was WR Stefon Diggs with his 163 yards and touchdown. The Bills should ride that hot hand again against a below-average Indy secondary. On defense, Buffalo should stack the box. When facing the Titans, Buffalo still rolled with a nickel-base defense and dared Tennessee to beat it – and the Titans did.

Matchup to watch: Bills CB Tre’Davious White vs. Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. Yes, the Bills have to shut down Indy’s rushing attack, but the Buffalo can’t let the Colts get a two-dimensional game plan going.

Who wins? This matchup was a close one in last year’s postseason. However, the Colts’ defense hasn’t rolled this season like it was then, and its offense might not have the firepower to keep up.

Bills, 31-17