Bills (7-5) at Buccaneers (9-3)
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
TV: CBS
Tipico Sportsbook line: Buccaneers by 3 ⁄2
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Bills’ keys to victory: Tampa Bay’s banged-up secondary has struggled, something QB Josh Allen will want to exploit by getting the ball out quickly to avoid the talented defensive front. The Bucs have one of the NFL’s best rush defenses, so Buffalo is better off throwing. Stopping the Tampa Bay offense begins and ends with getting consistent pressure on QB Tom Brady, keeping him from taking advantage of weapons like TE Rob Gronkowski and WRs Mike Evans and Chris Godwin.
Bucs’ keys to victory: Starting fast has been key for the Bucs in their three-game winning streak; they’ll need to keep that trend going. Going pass-heavy can work for Brady, but Tampa Bay will need more balance on offense with a strong running game, leaning on RB Leonard Fournette to help control the clock and keep the ball away from Allen. Getting after him without bringing extra rushers will be critical for the defense, which has struggled in coverage when blitzing.
Matchup to watch: Bills WR Stefon Diggs vs. Bucs CB Carlton Davis III. One of the most polished, precise route runners in the NFL, Diggs makes life miserable for even the quickest corners. Davis will attempt to put his size, length and physicality to use at the line of scrimmage, keeping Diggs from creating separation downfield.
Who wins? The Bucs are riding a three-game winning streak and are undefeated at home. The Bills can’t run the ball or stop the run consistently, and losing CB Tre’Davious White is a huge blow.
Bucs, 28-27