Bears (4-8) at Packers (9-3)
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: NBC
Tipico Sportsbook line: by 11 ⁄2
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Bears’ keys to victory: Feed the ball to RB David Montgomery and WR Darnell Mooney, create explosive plays and decisively win the special teams battle. Montgomery needs to be efficient as a runner, while Mooney must create big plays in the passing game. The Bears have to get contributions from both to score enough points to win, and explosive plays will be especially important against a stingy defense lacking CB Jaire Alexander. Getting a game-changing play from the special teams might also be required. Khalil Herbert and Jakeem Grant have big-play ability as returners.
Packers’ keys to victory: Protect Aaron Rodgers, get both RBs involved and take the ball away. Green Bay will like the matchups in the passing game if Rodgers is protected from DE Robert Quinn, who has 11 sacks. In the first meeting, Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon combined for 169 total yards, including 135 rushing yards. Dillon has created at least 75 total yards in five straight games, and Jones should be back to 100% after dealing with a knee injury. Turnovers will be key, especially after Andy Dalton and the Bears had four giveaways last week versus the Cardinals.
Matchup to watch: Bears CB Jaylon Johnson vs. Packers WR Davante Adams. In the first meeting, Adams caught a season-low four passes for 89 yards, mostly versus Johnson’s coverage, but his 41-yard catch in the fourth quarter set up the game-sealing TD.
Who wins? The Packers are 9-0 when getting one takeaway. The Bears have lost six of seven.
Packers, 30-17
Packers