Patriots (10-7) at Bills (11-6)
Saturday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park, New York
TV: CBS
Tipico Sportsbook line: Bills by 3 ⁄2
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Patriots’ keys to victory: New England had a front-row seat on how to beat the Bills this season. Offensively, the Patriots have to ground and pound the Bills out of the game. Buffalo has one of the NFL’s top defenses, but its work against the run can be below average. Particularly, bruising backs – including New England’s Damien Harris – have punished the Bills. He has two games with more than 100 rushing yards against Buffalo this season. The running game could also help defensively by killing the clock. On defense, the Patriots might struggle to slow Bills QB Josh Allen. One way to do so is to derail WR Stefon Diggs.
Bills’ keys to victory: Buffalo rolled on the back of Allen in a 3321 win in Foxborough on Dec. 26. There’s no reason to think that can’t happen again. If Allen does struggle, Bills RB Devin Singletary can be used to open things up. Defensively, the focus will be on New England’s backfield. The Bills want to force QB Mac Jones to make plays.
Matchup to watch: Bills’ Diggs vs. Patriots CB J.C. Jackson. The Bills like to force things toward Diggs in big games. But New England usually will lean on Jackson to slow down a No. 1 WR for the Bills instead of doubling up.
Who wins? The Bills enter the postseason as the much hotter team, winning four straight, while playing in front of their own crowd. Buffalo’s offensive line has played much better of late. If the Patriots, who lost last week to the Dolphins, can’t win in the trenches, it could be a long night for them.
Bills, 31-20