10 questions and predictions heading into 2022 MLB season
will be a day that normalcy will return to Major League Baseball.
There will be a 162-game schedule without a single threat of COVID-19 or labor dispute interrupting or delaying the season.
MLB and the players union may never agree on what constitutes fair compensation, but they will at least respect one another and show dignity when they gather together.
Who knows, maybe the Pittsburgh Pirates and Baltimore Orioles will stop tanking and one day return to the World Series, giving us a rematch of 1979. Hey, we can dream, can’t we? Well, while we still are optimistic, here are 10 questions and fearless predictions for 2022 – from rule changes to who will win the World Series.
1. When will the lockout end?
The lockout will end no later than Feb. 15, if not earlier, and no spring training games will be canceled.
MLB and the Players Association met last week on a video call that lasted more than an hour. The sides realize it would be catastrophic to the $11 billion industry for a work stoppage, making the 1994-95 strike look like nothing more aggravating than a rain delay. The two sides realize there is a genuine path to a five-year deal.
Spring training still is scheduled to start Feb. 16 with exhibition games beginning 10 days later.
2. What major changes will be made in the new deal?
There will be a universal DH with pitchers no longer needing to pick up a bat again.
The playoffs will be expanded from 10 teams to at least 12 teams, but likely 14 teams.
The minimum salary will rise from $570,500 to at least $700,000.
The luxury tax, currently at $210 million, will start at $230 million with incremental raises each year.
Players still will need six years of service time to reach free agency or
turn 29 1⁄2, whichever comes first.
Players will be eligible for salary arbitration earlier than three years or Super 2 status if they make the All-Star team, reach a certain WAR score or attain other incentives.
Teams won’t receive a top 5 draft pick three consecutive years no matter how awful the team performs.
There will be advertising logos on uniforms, perhaps even by your favorite betting sites.
There won’t be any more seven-inning doubleheaders and ghost runners will no longer come into games before the 12th inning.
The maximum number of pitchers on a staff will be limited to 13 in 2022 and 12 for the duration of the CBA.
A pitch clock will be incorporated in 2023.
3. Who’s under the most pressure to receive a big contract?
Take a bow, Carlos Correa. Correa, the best player on the free agent market, knows he deserves a more lucrative contract than Francisco Lindor’s 10-year, $341 million deal and certainly more than Corey Seager’s $325 million contract.
Yet, what if no one will give it to him? What if the Dodgers believe that Trea Turner will be their shortstop, not only in 2022, but in the future?
What if the New York Yankees truly believe that prized shortstop prospects Anthony Volpe or Oswald Peraza are the real deal and aren’t interested in anything more than a fill-in for a few years?
What if the Houston Astros don’t move off their five-year, $160 million ofThere
fer to Correa, insisting they won’t pay more than $200 million?
Where does Correa go, and will he have to take a short-term deal and hit the market again?
4. Which free agent contract signed this winter will be most scrutinized?
The Texas Rangers’ 10-year, $325 million for Seager is the biggest gamble of all the deals signed this winter. Seager has battled injuries for years and has missed 231 games in his last three full seasons. Now, with previous back injuries, he will be playing home games on artificial turf.
The Dodgers certainly have more money than the Rangers and could have kept Seager if they believed he’d still be productive in 2032.
5. What will happen to pitcher Trevor Bauer?
Certainly, he has thrown his last pitch for the Dodgers.
He also won’t throw a single pitch in a major league game for anyone in 2022.
MLB still is awaiting word from the Los Angeles District Attorney’s Office investigating sexual assault allegations against him. Once the findings are revealed, MLB will call Bauer in for questioning, present its case and suspend him for the entire 2022 season.
He will not be paid his $45 million, but the Dodgers will remain on the hook for $17 million in 2023 when they release him.
The big question is whether any team will give him another chance?
6. Will anyone be elected to the Hall of Fame, or will this be the second consecutive shutout?
David Ortiz is going to be close. Very, very close.
No one else has a chance.
The biggest trend in the Hall of Fame balloting is the record drop-off for shortstop Omar Vizquel.
In one year, he went from being a likely candidate to be inducted into Cooperstown in the next few years, receiving 52.6% of the vote in 2020, to perhaps not even receiving the necessary 5% to stay on the ballot.
I believed the 11-time Gold Glove winner who had 2,877 hits – fifth most by any shortstop in history – was a Hall of Famer.
Everything changed with news of his domestic violence and sexual harassment charges.
He’s off my ballot, and just about everyone else’s too.
Vizquel is on pace to lose 40% of his votes in a single year, according to the balloting compiled by Ryan Thibodaux (@NotMrTibbs).
7. Considering this is the last year on the ballot for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Sammy Sosa and Curt Schilling, what will be the next big Hall of Fame controversy?
We only have to wait until next year. It will be Carlos Beltran’s first year on the Hall of Fame ballot, and although he’s hardly a shoo-in, he has the numbers that would normally give him strong consideration for a home in Cooperstown.
He hit 435 home runs with 1,587 RBI and 2,725 hits and stole 312 bases. He has the fourth most homers and RBI by anyone who played at least 50% of their games in center field.
He was a monster in the postseason with a slash line of .307/.412/.609. His 1.021 OPS is the fifth highest in postseason history behind only Babe Ruth, Lou Gehrig, Albert Pujols and George Brett.
And he was an absolute rock star in the clubhouse where he was a team leader on each of his teams.
Yet Beltran also was considered one of the ring leaders in the infamous Houston Astros’ cheating scandal in 2017. Even though he was just a player, Beltran was one of the masterminds of
the sign stealing scandal.
It cost him his job as the New York Mets’ manager, getting fired without managing a single game.
It cost him a chance to be the Mets’ bench coach this year with new manager Buck Showalter.
Now, we’ll see if it costs him a chance at Cooperstown.
8. Is this the final season for three likely future Hall of Fame managers?
Dusty Baker of the Astros, Terry Francona of the Cleveland Guardians and Joe Maddon of the Los Angeles Angels are all on the final year of their contracts and could be headed into the sunset with eventual plaques in Cooperstown.
Baker, who’s just 13 victories shy of 2,000, signed a one-year contract in November not knowing whether he wants to keep managing or perhaps instead move to the front office as a special assistant. Baker, 72, still would love to grab that elusive World Series title as a manager, but by leading the Astros to the World Series last year, he’s a virtual lock for Cooperstown.
Francona, who has two World Series titles with the Boston Red Sox and nearly a third with Cleveland, has an automatic ticket to the Hall of Fame. Francona, 62, is not even among the five oldest managers, but his health may lead him to a front office position. He stepped away on July 29 last season with a staph infection in his toe, underwent hip replacement surgery, and has undergone about 12 procedures for stomach issues since 2019.
Maddon, who ended the Chicago Cubs’ curse in 2016 and led the Tampa Bay Rays to the American League pennant in 2008, has not publicly expressed any desire to retire. He is 67 years old, but he is in the final year of his contract with the Angels. The Angels have a $4 million option in 2023 or a $1 million buyout, but they have shown no indication they plan to retain him after the season. Maddon could keep managing elsewhere or join a front office. He also would be a natural in a national broadcasting role.
9. How will COVID-19 and the omicron variant affect attendance in 2022?
It could be a rough year at the gates for the owners even if ballparks are open at full capacity on opening day.
No cities have announced any restrictions in seating at sporting events, but with the virus wildly spreading, and season tickets flatlining with the lockout, attendance likely will be down again.
MLB drew just 45.3 million fans last year, its lowest total since 1984. It represented a 40.7% decline from the 68.5 million in its last full season in 2019.
Even with ballparks fully open by June, only the Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres had an increase in average attendance.
Rest assured, the decline in attendance will be brought up by MLB and the owners during their labor contract negotiations.
10. OK, so who will win the 2022 World Series?
I’ve somehow managed to correctly predict the last three World Series winners beginning with the Washington Nationals in 2019.
Anything can change with teams still needing to sign free agents and make trades, but on this date, I’m going to predict Atlanta to become the first National League team to repeat as World Series champions since the Cincinnati Reds in 1975-76.
Hey, if Atlanta can win the World Series without Ronald Acuña and Marcel Ozuna and remake its outfield on the fly, imagine how powerful it will be when everyone is healthy?
That all changes, of course, if Freddie Freeman is playing for the Dodgers or Yankees and does not return to Atlanta.
Check back with me on opening day on March 31.