49ers (12-7) at Rams (14-5)
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. ET, SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California TV: Fox
Tipico Sportsbook line: Rams by 3 ⁄2
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49ers’ keys to victory: The 49ers are built to run the ball, maintain possession and wreak havoc up front on defense. They did those things in the second half when they beat the Rams in Week 18. RB Elijah Mitchell must make defenders miss, as he did two weeks ago when he forced eight missed tackles against Los Angeles. The same goes for WR Deebo Samuel, who’s as elusive and explosive as any other player in the NFL. San Francisco cannot go three-and-out constantly and expect to beat the Rams.
Rams’ keys to victory: The Rams are finding new ways to win games, whether it’s by pounding the ball on the ground, like they did against the Arizona Cardinals in the wild-card round, or by airing it out with QB Matthew Stafford. Stafford is playing some of the best football of his life. Allowing him to sling the ball around 35-plus times is a good recipe for the Rams because not only is he making big plays, but he’s not coming close to turning the ball over. LA must take short, quick passes to negate the rush and keep Stafford clean.
Matchup to watch: 49ers’ Samuel vs. Rams LB Troy Reeder. Samuel has been a thorn in the Rams’ side for two years, and he’ll be San Francisco’s most important player in this game. If the 49ers can get him matched up on Reeder as a receiver and also force the linebacker to make open-field tackles in the running game, San Francisco is going to have a good chance.
Who wins? Stafford is playing well, and as long as the defense can slow down the ground game, QB Jimmy Garoppolo won’t beat LA.
Rams, 24-20