Ranking titles chances of men’s Sweet 16
USA TODAY Sports ranks the NCAA men’s Sweet 16 teams based on the potential of winning the national championship.
1. UCLA
The Bruins (27-7) unexpectedly reached the Final Four last year, bowing out in a thrilling semifinal to Gonzaga. Virtually every player on that roster returned to set up high expectations for 2021-22, but UCLA spent a majority of the season overshadowed in the Pac-12 by Arizona. Now in the NCAA Tournament, coach Mick Cronin’s group has found that extra gear that propelled it on that deep run last March. UCLA’s quartet of guards – Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez Jr., Tyger Campbell and Jules Bernard – is as dangerous as any remaining in the tourney. No. 4 seed.
2. Villanova
Coach Jay Wright has arguably the most seasoned team of this entire tournament, with the Wildcats (28-7) a main beneficiary of the NCAA’s extra COVID-19 year of eligibility. It starts with two-time Big East player of the year Collin Gillespie, in his fifth year running the point for the Wildcats; Gillespie (16 points per game, 41.6% from three) was on the roster the last time ’Nova won the national title in 2018. Another fifth-year senior is Jermaine Samuels, who had 17 points and eight rebounds versus Ohio State in the second round. No. 2 seed.
3. Duke
The Blue Devils (30-6) have seemed to find their identity and team chemistry at just the right time, finding an extra gear in their second-round win over Michigan State – particularly in the final five minutes. Paolo Banchero has always been this team’s most talented player, but the supporting cast is starting to step up, with five players in double digits for Duke versus the Spartans. Guard Jeremy Roach has taken over the starting point guard position, and this Duke team is playing inspired in trying to keep coach Mike Krzyzewski’s final season alive.
No. 2 seed.
4. Gonzaga
The Bulldogs (28-3) aren’t nearly as talented and dynamic as they were on last year’s national runner-up team, but they still have all the pieces to win it all and become coach Mark Few’s first team to cut down the nets. Drew Timme (18.2 points, 6.7 rebounds) is having an excellent NCAA Tournament – going for 32 points and 13 rebounds versus Georgia State and 25 points and 14 rebounds versus Memphis. The ’Zags lead the nation in scoring (87.8) and field goal percentage (53%). Guard Andrew Nembhard has been an unsung hero for this group, while freshman standout Chet Holmgren, who has yet to fully hit his potential, has the ability to change the game if he’s playing physical on the interior. No. 1 seed.
5. Texas Tech
The Red Raiders (27-9) have an elite defense behind firstyear coach Mark Adams, ranking first in the nation in KenPom’s defensive efficiency ratings. It was on display in the closing minutes versus Notre Dame in the second round as well as in a bundle of close Big 12 victories. There aren’t any elite offensive players on this team, but Bryson Williams (13.9 ppg) leads a group with five players averaging nine points or more.
No. 3 seed.
6. Kansas
The No. 1-seeded Jayhawks (30-6) have benefited from an added dimension to their already potent offense with the emergence of Remy Martin, an Arizona State transfer who took more of a back seat this year but has broken out as a lethal scorer in this NCAA Tournament. Martin led KU in scoring in both of its games. Ochai Agbaji (19.4 points) is Kansas’ All-American guard and Christian Braun is a glue guy who does the little things (blocks, clutch buckets) for the Jayhawks. No. 1 seed.
7. Arizona
The Wildcats (33-3) got 58 points from their two best players, Bennedict Mathurin (30 points) and Christian Koloko (28 points) in a second-round overtime win over TCU. Mathurin and Koloko scored Arizona’s final 15 points, but if point guard Kerr Kriisa, recovering from an ankle injury, can provide more offense (he was 1-for-10 in the TCU game) along with others, Arizona can be more of the full package in the second weekend.
No. 1 seed. 8. Purdue
The Boilermakers (29-7) have made it further than some of their Big Ten counterparts and have all the pieces to get coach Matt Painter to his first Final Four. It starts with Jaden Ivey (17.6 points), a dynamic playmaker who can carry the team offensively. Ivey and the rest of this veteran cast have the second-most efficient offense in the country, per KenPom. Purdue’s strength is also on the glass, ranking second nationally in rebounding margin. No. 3 seed.
9. North Carolina
The No. 8-seeded Tar Heels (26-9) found another gear and discovered their identity when they embarrassed Duke in Krzyzewski’s final home game March 5. The team’s backbone is Armando Bacot (16.4 points, 12.5 rebounds), whose play on the interior gives UNC an advantage. But it’s been the guard play of Caleb Love (23 points versus Marquette in the first round) and R.J. Davis (30 points in the win versus Baylor). Brady Manek is North Carolina’s Xfactor. If the 6-9 senior big man is hitting from beyond the arc, Hubert Davis’ team is really hard to stop. No. 8 seed.
10. Houston
The Cougars (31-5) lead the nation in field goal percentage defense and their smothering approach was on full display in their second-round win over Illinois. Coach Kelvin Sampson’s team often feeds off its defense to generate offense, which leads to Houston controlling the game’s tempo and taking opponents out of their offensive rhythm. The backcourt trio of
guards Taze Moore (21 points against Illinois), Jamal Shead (18 points) and Kyler Edwards (15 points) can be lethal in the Sweet 16. No. 5 seed.
11. Arkansas
The Razorbacks (27-8) are back in the NCAA Tournament’s second weekend for consecutive years. Coach Eric Musselman has a dangerous team that was overshadowed in the SEC by teams like Kentucky and Tennessee that are no longer dancing. JD Notae (18.4 points, 3.6 assists) is a game-changer with his ability to create for himself and his teammates off the bounce and Jaylin Williams (10.5 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.1 blocks) ignites this team in the frontcourt. ❚ No. 4 seed.
12. Providence
The Friars (27-5) defeated Richmond in the second round by 28 points after silencing a dangerous South Dakota State team. Coach Ed Cooley believes his Big East regular-season champions can extend this deep run with Providence in its first Sweet 16 in 25 years. If the Friars can shoot well from three the way they did against Richmond (12-for-22 from beyond the arc), they have a shot at beating anyone in this tournament. ❚ No. 4 seed.
13. Saint Peter’s
The Peacocks (21-11) have a chance to do what no other 15 seed has done in reaching the Elite Eight. Coach Shaheen Holloway has gotten this team to play inspired, stunning No. 2 Kentucky in the first round and then No. 7 Murray State. The formula has included a poised offense and relentless defensive effort. KC Ndefo is a spark plug on both ends, evidenced by his stat line of 17 points, 10 rebounds and six blocks versus Murray State. In both wins, Doug Edert has come off the bench to provide clutch shotmaking, which will be needed in the Sweet 16.
No. 15 seed. 14. Miami (Florida)
The No. 10-seeded Hurricanes (25-10) stunned No. 2 Auburn to get to the Sweet 16 and took down a solid Southern Cal team in the first round. Coach Jim Larrañaga has a team that’s peaking at the right time after playing itself off the bubble in February. Guard play is what Miami is good at, with seniors Kameron McGusty (17.5 points) and Charlie Moore (12.7 points, 4.6 assists) giving the Hurricanes a fighting chance against just about any team. No. 10 seed.
15. Iowa State
The Cyclones simply being here is an epic storyline considering this program was 222 last season and 0-18 in the Big 12. Getting this team to the bubble and even in March Madness was an accomplishment for coach T.J. Otzelberger. Can ISU advance further? It’s unlikely. But one thing this team has going: Its two best players were horrible in a second-round upset of Wisconsin, and the Cyclones still won. Leading scorer Izaiah Brockington had 10 points on 4for-15 shooting, while Tyrese Hunter, Iowa State’s hero versus LSU in Round 1 with 23 points, had just four points on 1-for-10 shooting. If either of those players play up to their ability, look out. No. 11 seed.
16. Michigan
The Wolverines (19-14) have gone from a team on the NCAA Tournament bubble to one in the Sweet 16. After a season of struggles, Michigan is finally playing like the team it was expected to be as a preseason No. 6. Hunter Dickinson, a 7-1 big man with a great touch and passing ability, had 27 points and 11 rebounds in Michigan’s upset of Tennessee. But the Xfactor may be guard play, where Eli Brooks and Devante’ Jones can cause havoc on both ends. Jones wasn’t at full strength in the Tennessee win so having him healthy will be a must. No. 11 seed.