Cowboys (11-4) at Titans (7-8)
Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET, Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tenn.
TV: Amazon Prime Video
Tipico Sportsbook line: Cowboys by 9 1⁄2
Cowboys’ keys to victory: On defense, Dallas has one goal: Stop RB Derrick Henry. The Cowboys have to stack the box and force QB Malik Willis to beat them through the air, which he won’t be able to do – he is limited as a passer and has a bad offensive line and one of the worst receiving corps in the NFL. On offense, the Cowboys will have a tough time moving the ball on the ground against Tennessee’s elite run defense, so attacking through the air with QB Dak Prescott and WR CeeDee Lamb is the best approach against a defense that has struggled mightily to defend the pass.
Titans’ keys to victory: Because the Titans have been unable to move the ball through the air with Willis under center, offensive success rests squarely on the shoulders of Henry. The bad news is that the Cowboys know that, so Tennessee must draw up more designed runs to Willis to alleviate at least some of the pressure on Henry. On defense, Tennessee has to win the battle up front against the run and pass by rushing three or four in order to be able to drop extra help into coverage when the Cowboys decide to throw on the struggling secondary.
Matchup to watch: Titans’ Henry vs. Cowboys’ defensive front. Stopping Henry is priority No. 1 for a defense that ranks in the bottom half of the NFL against the run.
Who wins? The Titans are absolutely lost right now after dropping five games in a row. As long as the Cowboys don’t fall asleep at the wheel, they should win this one going away.
Cowboys, 30-0