Even with moves, are Phillies team to beat?
Despite adding significant pieces to a roster that made the World Series last season, the Philadelphia Phillies may not have done enough this offseason to keep pace in their own division, let alone the rest of the National League.
The Phillies were among the big spenders – and winners – of the first month of baseball free agency. And much like they have the past two offseasons, they swung for the fences with their signings. There was the massive 11-year, $300 million contract for shortstop Trea Turner and a four-year, $72 million deal for starting pitcher Taijuan Walker.
For a team two wins away from winning the World Series, such moves would seem to put the roster over the top. But these signings are just a splash in the bucket when considering the other moves that have shaken the National League.
Within their own division, the New York Mets have spent over $800 million in free agency, most notably $350 million on shortstop Carlos Correa (pending a resolution over physical issues) and in re-signing outfielder Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Diaz. In the NL West, the San Diego Padres, whom the Phillies beat in the NL championship series en route to the World Series, spent big (shortstop Xander Bogaerts, 11 years for $280 million) and smart. The re-signing of pitcher Robert Suarez and additions of free agent pitcher Seth Lugo and infielder/outfielder Matt Carpenter in market value deals were shrewd moves by general manager A.J. Preller.
While the Phillies were bold in their intentions in brandishing owner John Middleton’s checkbook, it might not be enough. The roster still lacks effective middle relief, an issue that was exposed in their World Series elimination.
Not to mention that the lineup is heavy on big bats.
“The Phillies knew what they
were doing when they hired (GM) Dave Dombrowski. John Middleton is desperate to win a World Series and is willing to spend whatever money and however irrationally to achieve that goal,” former Miami Marlins general manager David Samson told USA TODAY Sports Weekly.
“Trea Turner is a valuable addition to their team, but it remains to be seen whether they will have the pitching to repeat as National League champions. Either way, there are going to be some unhappy fan bases come October. (This) will be a fascinating season.”
At the end of the day, the
Phillies are still going to be favorites to contend for the playoffs and the division title. And yes, the accomplishment of making the playoffs, what with Bryce Harper missing two months of the regular season with a fractured thumb, should not be overlooked.
But despite their playoff run, it still took the Phillies until the final weekend of the regular season to clinch the playoffs. One major hiccup this season and one of the highest payrolls in baseball might be on the outside looking in come the postseason.
As team president, Samson won a World Series in 2003 with
the Marlins. He knows that the roster is in a state of permanent flux at this point in the offseason.
This is especially true of the bullpen, a major area of concern for the Phillies throughout the previous season and especially in their World Series loss to the Houston Astros.
The bullpen’s 4.27 ERA during the regular season was the eighth worst in baseball. But it is clear from Samson’s perspective that the Phillies are among the favorites in the NL.
They aren’t, however, the favorites after a frantic month of free agency.
“The bullpen in April is al-* most never the bullpen in October. There will be additions that the Phillies will make as the season progresses,” Samson said.
“The Padres and Mets are likely the betting favorites. With Phillies and Braves and Dodgers next.”
For a team that has been built to win now, there is clearly pressure that these veteran free agents such as Turner and Walker will not just need to step in seamlessly but elevate an already good team. Turner will turn 30 during the season and Walker as well as relief pitcher Matthew Strahm (two years, $15 million) are 30 and 31, respectively.
It is a lot of money being tied up in players who already have some decent mileage to their careers.
That thought won’t damper the enthusiasm of the Phillies, who have made big signings in three consecutive offseasons and are clearly being built to win the World Series during this two- or three- season window.
Lenny Dykstra, the catalyst for the Phillies 1993 team that made it to the World Series and lost in six games to the Toronto Blue Jays, knows the pitfalls that the following season can bring. The next year after making the World Series, a Phillies team that went from worst to first the season before slipped and finished fourth in the National League East.
That team didn’t make many changes from their prior roster while the rest of the NL addressed needs and moved past the stagnant Phillies. However, the 1993 team had several 30plus veterans. These Phillies have a younger look, while their two best players, Harper (30) and Turner, are in the middle of their primes.
“The Taijuan Walker move is the sleeper. I like his fire – reminds me of Brett Myers. Maybe even, if we go back further to Hall of Famer Ferguson Jenkins … bad move by the Phillies letting Fergie go by the way (in a 1966 trade),” Dykstra said.
“I’m fine if they tread water… they did make it to the Series!”