Jaguars (10-8) at Chiefs (14-3)
Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET, GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City, Missouri
TV: NBC
Tipico Sportsbook line: Chiefs by 9
Jaguars’ keys to victory: Protect QB Trevor Lawrence better. In the first meeting between these teams in November, the Chiefs sacked Lawrence five times, including three times on third down. They had some opportunities in that game, stealing a possession on the opening kickoff with an onside-kick recovery, intercepting QB Patrick Mahomes and losing two fumbles. They were simply unable to capitalize on those opportunities because of their inability to protect Lawrence.
Chiefs’ keys to victory: Create turnovers and limit their own. The Chiefs had a minus-3 turnover differential during the regular season. They’ll need opportunistic play from co-interception leaders in DBs Juan Thornhill and L’Jarius Sneed, but they’ll also need to limit their own mistakes. Losing the turnover battle 3-0 against Jacksonville in Week 10 should serve as a reminder.
Matchup to watch: Jaguars WRs Christian Kirk and Zay Jones vs. Chiefs CBs Sneed and Trent McDuffie. In their comeback win over the Chargers, Kirk and Jones combined for more than 140 receiving yards and two touchdowns on 16 receptions. In Week 10 against the Chiefs, the duo had 17 catches for more than 170 yards and two touchdowns. The secondary in Kansas City has been playing better as of late, with McDuffie playing in the slot and Sneed on the boundary.
Who wins? The Jaguars will be playing loose and aggressively, but Kansas City will be better prepared for it this time.
Chiefs, 34-23