Correa free agency: 3 teams, wild saga
One franchise player took a $150 million haircut – but is still plenty rich.
Two clubs thought they had that guy on their roster – and now can only wait to see if their abundant caution was wellfounded.
And in a division where franchises aren’t expected to punch above their weight, one team potentially doled out the largest free agent guarantee in the American League Central’s history.
Carlos Correa’s six-year, $200 million agreement with the Minnesota Twins may be the most unprecedented free agency dalliance in major league history – and its ripples will impact two leagues for years.
Briefly a San Francisco Giant and stuck in New York Mets limbo over the course of two calendar years only to see those pacts evaporate due to concerns over an ankle injury, Correa, stunningly, finally, returns to the Twins.
His one year in Minnesota, for which he was paid $35.1 million, was supposed to be a “pillow contract.”
Instead, Correa’s second trip through free agency turned into something of a nightmare.
Let’s try to unpack it all – with the long-term impacts for all parties:
Correa: Finally, a forever home?
Free agency is supposed to be a glorious time for elite players, and as a 27year-old shortstop ready to hit the market in 2021, Correa was in the driver’s seat.
Instead, the former Houston Astros stalwart embarked on a two-year odyssey where a temporary home became permanent – but a record-setting payday passed him by.
Correa was a top-five MVP finisher, an AL champion, and seemingly in his physical prime when the Astros opted not to seriously compete for his services. No matter: Correa was inarguably the class of an elite shortstop group that was diminished by one when Francisco Lindor agreed to a 10-year, $341 million contract extension with the Mets.
On the open market, Correa was reasonably expected to top that. What happened? Part of it was timing. MLB would lock out its players on Dec. 1, 2021, freezing transactions for 99 days and truncating free agency and spring training. Hindsight would teach the class of 202122 that jumping at offers before the shutdown,
and not waiting it out, was the move.
Corey Seager landed a 10-year, $325 million deal with the Texas Rangers two days before the deadline, during which the club also guaranteed Marcus Semien $175 million. Javier Baez (Tigers, $140 million) also beat that buzzer. None are, consistently, Correa-caliber players.
But come mid-March, with labor peace in hand, Correa and other holdovers such as slugging first baseman Freddie Freeman found options limited and time working against them. Agent Scott Boras then scrambled, hammering out a $105.3 million, three-year guarantee with the Twins, with opt-outs after the first two.
After Correa was paid $35.1 million for a solid 2022 season in Minnesota, he opted out in good spirits. Plenty of mutual love with the Twin Cities. And a market ready to lavish him with riches.
The Giants seemingly did just that, only to raise red flags over the long-term viability of his surgically repaired right ankle. That deal fell apart as quickly as his next one came together, Boras finessing a $315 million commitment out of Mets owner Steve Cohen before Camp Correa could check out of their San Francisco hotel.
Yet the Mets’ sudden cold feet – the deal hit a snag – leaves Correa in a far less lucrative, though not disastrous, spot.
Good: He’s a shortstop again, not forced to move to third to accommodate
Lindor, and will be the cog around which the Twins revolve, with elite skills and character up the middle with Correa, center fielder Byron Buxton and catcher Christian Vazquez.
Bad: He’s in a cold-weather town away from the glitz of New York, where his stridance and swagger would have been great for the game.
Good: Counting his first contract with the Twins, he will average $33.58 million a season, an average annual value ranking second to Lindor all time among shortstops. Correa’s total guaranteed free agent haul: seven years, $235.1 million, with a chance to make it 11 years, $305.1 million if four option years vest. Not too bad.
Bad: He likely will fall short of total paydays earned by Seager, Trea Turner and Lindor, whom Correa can easily count as peers.
Twins: Good guys win?
While both Central divisions are filled with franchises that often cry poverty, the Twins have proved different, landing third baseman Josh Donaldson and now Correa, twice, on deals that work for them. Consider that the much biggermarket Chicago White Sox just gave out the biggest contract in their history – a five-year, $75 million deal for outfielder Andrew Benintendi.
Correa’s commitment is more than 2 1⁄2 times that – and that’s on the heels of guaranteeing Vazquez $30 million. If just one of Correa’s option years vest, it will be the largest free agent signing in AL or NL Central history, topping Prince Fielder’s $215 million deal with the Detroit Tigers in 2012.
Mets: A moment of sobriety?
Cohen’s winter player bacchanal was at its peak when the needle suddenly came off the record as the club balked at Correa’s surgically repaired ankle. So now what?
Make no mistake, the club’s $451 million outlay to retain or attract outfielder Brandon Nimmo and pitchers Edwin Diaz, Justin Verlander, Kodai Senga and Jose Quintana is significant. This club already won 101 games.
But none of them are as good as Correa. They will have to convince incumbent third baseman Eduardo Escobar that, truly, they like him just fine, while pondering how much they integrate prospect Brett Baty into the mix.
Perhaps most significantly, Mets fans will have to cope with the fact that Cohen, worth an estimated $17 billion, has his limits. It’s not so much the medical red flag as it is the heavily conditioned low-ball offer that followed it. Such angst could be easily forgotten a year from now; a successful pursuit of Shohei Ohtani or Manny Machado in free agency will make the Correa Conundrum feel like a dodged bullet.
For now, should the club flounder at all in coming years while Correa flourishes, fans will be left to wonder, what if ?
Giants: Island of consolation toys
When the Giants missed out on Aaron Judge, and then backed away from Correa, ensuring no elite free agents would join them, it was like a parent at the holidays seeing the last American Girl Doll vanish from the shelves.
In a baseball sense, they tried to replace Corinne Tan in the aggregate.
So here’s Michael Conforto, coming off an injury but given two years and $36 million. Hey, let’s pair reliever Taylor Rogers (three years, $33 million) with twin brother Tyler. And who wouldn’t want Ross Stripling (two years, $25 million) in their stocking?
Yet while the Giants might have maintained or even improved upon their 81win team from a year ago, none of that will likely entice a slumbering fan base out to the ballpark. Nor is it likely enough to contend with the ceiling-less Padres or indomitable Dodgers down south.