Is one of greatest closers a Hall of Famer?
All-time saves leader Mariano Rivera is a Hall of Famer, preceded by Trevor Hoffman, the man he supplanted at the top. Billy Wagner is making significant inroads in his eighth appearance on the ballot. Cooperstown, it seems, is opening the door wider for relief pitchers to stroll in.
So where does fit?
A World Series-winning phenom for the Anaheim Angels at age 20, whose wipe-out slider quickly earned him the nickname K-Rod, Rodriguez’s five postseason victories shortly after his 2002 debut have been equaled only by Randy Johnson and Stephen Strasburg. His 62 saves in 2008 remain a single-season record, and his 437 career saves rank fourth all time, with veterans committee Hall of Famer Lee Smith separating him from Rivera and Hoffman.
Yet Rodriguez, now 41, faces a possible one-and-done ballot fate. USA TODAY Sports examines his Hall of Fame case:
Francisco Rodriguez
Why Rodriguez belongs in the Hall
Few relievers were more dominant than Rodriguez at his best. He debuted as a 20-year-old in 2002 and, just weeks later, was added to the Angels playoff roster, where he become a budding legend.
Rodriguez struck out 28 batters in 18 2⁄3 innings as the Angels startled the Yankees and Twins before outlasting the Giants in a seven-game World Series.
By 2004, he was an All-Star, producing 3.3 Wins Above Replacement and striking out 123 batters in 84 innings, and in 2005 took over the closer role from Troy Percival. He’d save 45 games, starting a run in which he led the American League in saves three out of four seasons.
The best of those years was 2006, when he led the majors with 47 saves and produced career bests in adjusted ERA (263) and WAR (3.7). The most prolific of those years was 2008, when he set the single-season saves record with 62 in 69 chances, finished third in Cy Young voting and parlayed that into a three-year, $37 million contract with the New York Mets. He’d save 35 games in 2009 for the Mets, though his ERA ballooned to 3.71, kicking off a so-so stint in New York.
Rodriguez would go on to 44- and 38save seasons in Milwaukee and save another 44 games with Detroit in 2015 before a final season with the Tigers. His six seasons of at least 40 saves ranks, once again, behind only Rivera and Hoffman, who each had nine.
Why he doesn’t stack up
How many and which relievers belong in Cooperstown remains an open question. Rivera and Hoffman redefined longevity and greatness, each converting 89% of their save chances in their career. Smith was the all-time saves leader with 478 before Hoffman surpassed him, but was less dominant, striking out 8.7 batters per nine innings. He never received more than 50.6% of votes in 15 appearances on the ballot before the Today’s Game Era committee selected him in 2019.
Rodriguez may land in that category of not-quite-enough, lacking the sheer tonnage of saves Rivera and Hoffman posted, along with a skittish ERA in the years after he turned 30.
And in an era when voters more closely scrutinize off-field behavior, be it players directly tied to steroid use or the multiple allegations of physical abuse or sexual harassment against Omar Vizquel,
Rodriguez’s legal woes may count against him.
In September 2012, he was arrested on suspicion of domestic battery after his girlfriend called 911 and told Waukesha County (Wisconsin) deputies that Rodriguez struck and injured her; charges were eventually dropped when his girlfriend did not cooperate with prosecutors.
In August 2010, Rodriguez was arrested and charged with third-degree assault and second-degree harassment after police said he repeatedly hit his girlfriend’s father in the face and hit his head against the wall in an incident at Citi Field. He struck a deal to plead guilty to one count of attempted assault and two counts of disorderly conduct.
Rodriguez was also charged with criminal contempt after violating a restraining order in the case when he sent his girlfriend 56 text messages pleading for forgiveness. Both the 2010 and 2012 incidents almost certainly would have resulted in discipline under MLB’s domestic violence policy, which was enacted in 2015.
Voting trends
While this is Rodriguez’s first year on the ballot, the early returns don’t appear to be in his favor. Rodriguez has been named on 9.3% of ballots publicly revealed and listed in Ryan Thibodaux’s Hall of Fame Ballot Tracker.
Publicly revealed ballots tend to be more candidate-friendly, which doesn’t bode well for Rodriguez’s ultimate outcome, though he has a good chance to poll above 5%, ensuring he returns for a second year on the ballot.
Will Rodriguez ultimately get in?
History and what we know about the electorate so far suggests chances are very remote. It will be worth tracking whether Wagner gets elected, since the two aren’t separated by much in career statistics like WAR (Wagner 27.7, Rodriguez 24.2), adjusted ERA (Wagner 187, Rodriguez 148), WHIP (Wagner 1.00, Rodriguez 1.16) and ERA (Wagner 2.31, Rodriguez 2.86). Rodriguez also holds the edge in saves (437-422) despite spending his first two seasons as a setup man.
At the moment, Wagner has received 72.8% of votes on publicly revealed ballots, just below the 75% required for election. From a purely baseball standpoint, Wagner is the superior candidate – but the gap probably isn’t that wide.