Leading OFF
How will baseball rule changes affect the usual fantasy stars?
It’s the same game, but baseball will look considerably different in 2023.
With fewer and fewer balls being put in play (last season’s composite batting average fell to .243, the lowest since 1968) and the pace of play suffering from long periods of dead time, Major League Baseball decided major improvements were not only needed, but overdue to make the game more exciting.
Adding so many new variables at once may be thrilling for fans, but it’s a nightmare for analysts. So let’s take a look at the new rules to see how they might impact the numbers and our quest for a fantasy title this season.
Eliminating the shift
Last season, MLB teams positioned their infielders in an overshift (more than two fielders on one side of second base) on 33.6% of all plate appearances. The strategy was even more pronounced against lefthanded batters (55.0%), frequently resulting in those lefty swingers being thrown out on ground balls to short right field.
With the new shift rule, that action won’t be possible. Teams must have two players on either side of second base with their feet on the infield dirt.
That’s great news for lefty hitters Corey Seager, Kyle Tucker and Kyle Schwarber, who faced the shift in more than 600 of their total plate appearances last season (or over 90% of them).
Seager led the majors in ground-ball outs into the shift, which might have been a major factor in his .245 batting average – down from .307 in 2020 and .306 in 2021 – and nearly 40 points lower than his expected batting average per
Statcast of .283.
Don’t look for him to hit .300 again (after all, Seager did blast a career-best 33 home runs last season), but at least he shouldn’t hurt a fantasy team’s average in 2023.
Other players who should benefit from the shift rule include José Ramirez, Max Kepler, Max Muncy, Shohei Ohtani, Yordan Alvarez, Matt Olson and even right-handed hitter Eugenio Suarez.
Not everyone will benefit from the rule change, though. The limits on shifting in the minor leagues only resulted in an overall increase in batting average from .247 to .249.
Larger bases encourage stealing
MLB’s new 18-inch square bases only reduce the distance between first and second by 4.5 inches, but when success is measured by just a fraction of a second, every little advantage matters.
For the league’s best base stealers, this change could
mean a permanent green light to run – especially when pitchers are also being limited to two pickoff attempts per plate appearance. (A third attempt must result in an out or the pitcher is charged with a balk.)
Trea Turner, Bobby Witt Jr., Julio Rodriguez and Jake McCarthy will be among the favorites to lead their leagues in steals.
In the minor leagues, the larger bases spurred an increase in stolen base attempts from 2.23 per game to 2.81, and the stolen base success rate improved from 68% to 78%. That shift in the “go zone” could result in many more players becoming stolen base assets, especially those with good speed who haven’t used it as much to their advantage.
Diamondbacks rookie outfielder Corbin Carroll had the highest sprint speed in the majors last season (30.7 feet/second). He’ll be one to watch closely as the team’s likely starter in left field.
Other speedsters who could run more often include Tyler
O’Neill (14-for-18 in SB attempts in 2022), Amed Rosario (18for-22), Leody Taveras (11for-16), Lane Thomas (8-for-12), Jeremy Peña (11-for-13) and Jazz Chisholm (12-for-17). All of them ranked in the 94th percentile or above in sprint speed, but none swiped as many as 20 bases a year ago.
On the other hand, just because it’s easier to steal bases doesn’t mean everyone will try. In fact, it may even hurt the fantasy value of players such as Fernando Tatis Jr. and Byron Buxton because for them, the risk of injury may be greater than the value of taking an extra base.
Pitch clock
Forcing pitchers to begin their motion within 15 seconds of receiving the ball from the catcher or umpire (20 seconds if there’s a runner on base) helps keep things moving. Hitters also have to be in the box and ready by the 8-second mark.
Already this spring, overall game times are shorter. But how it impacts each pitcher is uncertain. Could it reduce a starter’s stamina more quickly? Will it prevent relievers from being able to max out on every pitch?
We might be able to figure things out fairly quickly. Statcast can track velocity changes during a game. We’ll see which pitchers are struggling with the clock by how many violations they have.
We do know Corbin Burnes, Shohei Ohtani, Luis Garcia, Zac Gallen and Alek Manoah are among the pitchers who tend to work more slowly. Relievers Devin Williams, Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Camilo Doval also like to take their time. Plus, hitters Pete Alonso and Mark Canha are among the most deliberate at the plate.
Monitor their body language as well as the numbers in the early going.
What else is new in 2023?
MLB has tweaked the schedule as well this season. Clubs are playing fewer games in their own divisions and playing at least one series against every other team.
That change should help players in the most difficult divisions and lessen the advantage those in the AL and NL Central have enjoyed in recent years just because the level of competition will be spread more evenly.
Finally, a couple of ballparks have undergone structural changes this offseason that should make them more hitterfriendly. In Detroit, the walls in left field and center field have been moved in 10 feet and lowered by 11⁄2 feet, potentially helping young hitters Riley Greene and Spencer Torkelson in particular.
And in Toronto, the 375-foot power alleys will be reduced to 366 feet in left-center and 357 feet in right-center. For a team that has several fantasy stars on offense, the Blue Jays could be the team that benefits most from the offseason changes.