Saints (2-2) at Patriots (1-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, Stadium, Foxborough,
TV: CBS
Spread (BetMGM):
Patriots by 1.5
Saints’ keys to victory: The Patriots are depleted in the defensive backfield. That liability should open up plenty of opportunities for the Saints to attack the secondary with WR Michael Thomas while also exploiting mismatches with RB Alvin Kamara. On the other side of the ball, it’s pretty simple for the opposing defense: Stack the box until the Patriots prove they can connect on throws downfield.
Patriots’ keys to victory: Not losing the turnover battle would be a great start to avoid the sort of embarrassing performance the Patriots had in Week 4 against the Cowboys. QB Mac Jones must do a better job of taking care of the football (three turnovers in Week 4). Meanwhile, the defense has to stave off the rushing attack and force Saints QB Derek Carr, who is playing through a shoulder injury, to win with his arm.
Matchup to watch: Saints’ Kamara vs. Patriots’ linebackers. Kamara could break the game wide open for the Saints as a downhill runner and a threat in the passing game. The Patriots have struggled over the years defending against receiving backs who turn short dump-off passes into large chunk plays. They invested in more athletic players like rookie LB Marte Mapu.
Who wins? The Patriots will be back at home after being humiliated on the road by the Cowboys. A loss would pretty much slam the lid shut on hopes in the AFC East Division. An angry Bill Belichickcoached team, as an underdog at home, is a good bet to come out swinging.
Patriots 24-17
Gillette Massachusetts