Commanders (2-3) at Falcons (3-2)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, MercedesBenz Stadium, Atlanta
TV: CBS
Spread (BetMGM):
Falcons by 2.5
Commanders’ keys to victory:
Washington should look to establish the run with RB Brian Robinson early in the game and use it to set up play-action passes. Atlanta’s secondary has been excellent this season, but it can be overaggressive at times. The Commanders must be patient and take good care of the football on offense. Defensively, if you can stop the run, you can stop the Falcons. Thus far, the Falcons have had no answer for teams that stop their run.
Falcons’ keys to victory: Starting fast is crucial as the Falcons offense has made a habit of getting behind early in games. Atlanta must keep the chains moving by feeding RB Bijan Robinson (364 rushing yards; 5.4 per carry) and utilizing quick passes to the playmakers. The Falcons defense has been formidable, but it won’t matter if the offense can’t put points on the board. Head coach Arthur Smith needs to be creative with his play-calling if Atlanta is going to keep pace.
Matchup to watch: Falcons CB A.J. Terrell vs. Commanders WR Terry McLaurin. Terrell has really benefited from the addition of safety Jessie Bates. Terrell, a former first-round pick (2020), will likely be following around McLaurin regardless of where the Commanders wideout lines up. McLaurin has been QB Sam Howell’s favorite target this season.
Who wins? The Commanders have been better than anticipated this season, despite an ugly loss to the Bears in Week 5. While the Falcons are more talented, Washington has more firepower, and that will be the subtle difference.
Commanders, 24-17