Colts (3-2) at Jaguars (3-2)

Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville

TV: CBS

Spread (BetMGM):

Jaguars by 4.5

Colts’ keys to victory: It’s likely QB Gardner Minshew will get the start under center in Week 6 with QB Anthony Richardson ailing with an AC joint sprain and expected to be out for a while. The Colts offense runs through the combo of RBs Jonathan Taylor and Zack Moss. With Taylor still working himself back into game shape, Moss ran wild in the win against the Titans last week. The Jaguars run defense has been stingy, so the Colts will need to keep them offbalance by getting WR Michael Pittman Jr. involved.

Jaguars’ keys to victory: In a Week 1 win in Indianapolis, the Jaguars leaned on WR Calvin Ridley to put up big numbers against the Colts’ inexperienced cornerbacks. Not much has changed. Jacksonville has a bevy of weapons at QB Trevor Lawrence’s disposal and needs to take advantage of that experience discrepancy. That could mean another strong day for Ridley, or it could be WR Christian Kirk or TE Evan Engram who rack up receiving yardage.

Matchup to watch: Colts DT Grover Stewart vs. Jaguars C Luke Fortner. On a defense with a stacked front that includes DT DeForest Buckner and DE Kwity Paye, it may be Stewart who has been most impressive in 2023. If Fortner, a second-year center who has been a weak link for the Jaguars, can’t hold his own, it could be a tough day for the Jaguars offense.

Who wins? The Jaguars are showing signs they’re turning into the team most thought they’d be. A home matchup against the Colts is a game Jacksonville should win.

Jaguars, 30-17