Saints (3-2) at Texans (2-3)
Sunday, 1 p.m. EDT, NRG Stadium, Houston
TV: Fox
Spread (BetMGM):
Saints by 1.5
Saints’ keys to victory: Keeping the offense two-dimensional is key, which means finding ways for RB Alvin Kamara to get his touches. Against an aggressive front, his work out of the backfield may be more needed than a conventional approach on the ground. QB Derek Carr must settle in and not get skittish amid the pass rush. DE Cameron Jordan and the Saints defensive line has to close off the run game early and force the opposition to rely on their rookie passer.
Texans’ keys to victory: The offensive scheme is built on the run, but the running game has not been productive for Houston. QB C.J. Stroud has made clutch, deliberate throws. While rookie WR Tank Dell has been an emerging target, the concussion protocol casts doubts on his availability. WR Robert Woods has been a steady option and has familiarity with the scheme. Houston may also include more from TE Dalton Schultz, who has developed as a target. Rookie LB Henry provides dependable run support and pass coverage.
Matchup to watch: Saints WR Chris Olave vs. Texans CB Steven Nelson. The 2022 first-rounder hasn’t scored a TD but has two games with 100 yards receiving. Nelson leads the Texans with two interceptions and has four pass breakups. No wideout has gone over 100 yards receiving vs. Houston this season.
Who wins? The Saints are a more experienced team in coaching and at game management positions. Houston’s offensive line continues to get healthy, though, which should help the run game.
Texans, 24-20
Mark Lane, Texans Wire